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AP: Should we shoot down NK's missiles aimed at Guam?

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  • AP: Should we shoot down NK's missiles aimed at Guam?

    SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — With North Korea threatening to send a salvo of ballistic missiles close to Guam, a U.S. military hub in the Pacific, pressure could grow for Washington to put its multibillion-dollar missile defense system into use and shoot them out of the air.


    No, I'm not fucking playing....

    SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — With North Korea threatening to send a salvo of ballistic missiles close to Guam, a U.S. military hub in the Pacific, pressure could grow for Washington to put its multibillion-dollar missile defense system into use and shoot them out of the air.

    If U.S. territory is threatened, countermeasures are a no-brainer. But if the missiles aren’t expected to hit the island — the stated goal is to have them hit waters well offshore — should it? Could it?

    It’s not an easy call.

    North Korea claims it is in the final stages of preparing a plan to launch four intermediate-range ballistic missiles over Japan and into waters off the tiny island of Guam, where about 7,000 U.S. troops are based and 160,000 U.S. civilians live.

    Guam is a launching point for U.S. strategic bombers that the North, virtually flattened by U.S. bombs during the 1950-53 Korean War, sees as particularly threatening. U.S. bombers have flown over the Korean Peninsula several times to show American strength after Pyongyang’s missile tests.

    Unlike past missile launches that landed much closer to North Korean territory, firing a barrage near Guam would be extremely provocative, almost compelling a response. Trying to intercept the missiles, however, would open up a whole new range of potential dangers.

    Here’s the calculus.

    ___

    THE PROS

    Each missile North Korea launches brings it closer to having a reliable nuclear force capable of striking the United States mainland, or its allies and military facilities in Asia. Kim Jong Un has radically accelerated the pace of the North’s missile development, and many experts believe it could have an intercontinental ballistic missile able to hit major American cities within a year or two.

    It already has ballistic missiles that can strike Japan, a key ally and host to roughly 50,000 U.S. troops. It’s very possible the North could attack Japan and U.S. bases there with nuclear, chemical or biological warheads. But the North clearly still needs to conduct more tests to hone its technical skills.

    In particular, doubts remain over whether it has perfected re-entry technology for its warheads. It also needs to train its troops to operate effectively in the field to handle nuclear warheads and missiles on short notice.

    Shooting down the North’s missiles would hamper its ability to glean the flight data it needs. And if his missiles prove no match for U.S. interceptors, Kim Jong Un might be chastened into thinking twice before conducting any more.

    Intercepting a missile over the open ocean has the added benefit of not being a direct attack on North Korea itself. It would send a very strong message but leave more room for de-escalation than a pre-emptive strike against military facilities or other targets on the ground.

    ___

    THE CONS

    A big problem is that failure would not only be humiliating, but could actually weaken the U.S. position more than doing nothing at all.

    The U.S. has pumped billions of dollars into its missile defense systems and sold hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth to its allies, including the very controversial deployment of a state-of-the-art system known by its acronym, THAAD, in South Korea. The U.S. military has also conducted two ICBM interceptor tests since May. Officials called them successes, but critics say they don’t replicate actual conditions close enough to be a fair gauge.

    Taking out Guam-bound missiles would require successful intercepts by ship-based SM-3 “hit-to-kill” missiles over the Sea of Japan or land-based PAC-3 “Patriot” missiles on Guam. The ship-based defenses are designed to kill a missile that’s in midflight, while the ground-based ones take out whatever missiles make it through and are in the final stage.

    But it’s highly questionable whether either or both would be able to take down the full salvo of four North Korean missiles. President Donald Trump hinted the defense system still needs beefing up on Thursday when he told reporters the U.S. will be spending billions more on them.

    A failed intercept would likely embolden the North to move ahead even faster. It could also have a chilling psychological impact on allies like Japan and South Korea, which might seek to build up their own nuclear forces independently of Washington. Rival powers China and Russia, meanwhile, might see the exposed weakness as an opportunity to push forward more assertive policies of their own.

    Even if it were successful, a policy of shooting down missiles would undoubtedly raise tensions, and put an uncomfortable squeeze on American allies on the front lines.

    Worst of all, if American intentions aren’t clear, an attempt to intercept a missile might be misinterpreted by Pyongyang — or Beijing or Moscow — and escalate into a real shooting war.

    On a technical level, just as the North learns valuable information on its capabilities with each launch, so does the U.S. military. Shooting down the missiles would cut that intelligence off.

    ___

    BOTTOM LINE

    If the U.S. were to pursue this strategy, it would have to be hugely confident of success. And it would definitely want its allies fully on board.

    ___

    Eric Talmadge is the AP’s Pyongyang bureau chief. Follow him on Twitter at EricTalmadge and Instagram at erictalmadge.
    I wear a Fez. Fez-es are cool

  • #2
    Jesus fucking Christ.

    And people actually want people like this to be commander in Chief.

    Comment


    • #3
      Salvo? I thought they were only firing one missile.
      I don't like Republicans, but I really FUCKING hate Democrats.


      Sex with an Asian woman is great, but 30 minutes later you're horny again.

      Comment


      • #4
        Some people needed to spend more time on the playground getting into scraps as a kid. They wouldn't have such bullshit thoughts if they had done so.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by LANTIRN View Post
          Salvo? I thought they were only firing one missile.
          They said they are firing 4
          I wear a Fez. Fez-es are cool

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Forever_frost View Post
            They said they are firing 4
            Didn't realize that. Everything I heard prior to this made it sound like one missile.
            I don't like Republicans, but I really FUCKING hate Democrats.


            Sex with an Asian woman is great, but 30 minutes later you're horny again.

            Comment


            • #7
              They are also planning on firing them over mainland japan as well.

              Comment


              • #8
                I find it hilarious that these media idiots have to walk the line and hold themselves back from rooting for North Korea. They hate Trump so much that they want to see this whole thing go down as a total disaster. It is pretty fucking pathetic that they hate their own country so much.
                Originally posted by racrguy
                What's your beef with NPR, because their listeners are typically more informed than others?
                Originally posted by racrguy
                Voting is a constitutional right, overthrowing the government isn't.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Broncojohnny View Post
                  I find it hilarious that these media idiots have to walk the line and hold themselves back from rooting for North Korea. They hate Trump so much that they want to see this whole thing go down as a total disaster. It is pretty fucking pathetic that they hate their own country so much.
                  x1000

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    trump will just release Team America World Police on em!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I haven't been following this stuff too closely but noticed a blurb a couple days ago that Japan was mobilizing Patriot Missiles and intended to shoot down anything sent over them / near Guam..

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        well we still are at war with them. not too worried about the missiles but we need to remember they put those satellites in orbit . if one is armed then that is a much larger threat . there will never be peace with them or iran . just not possible. but the last 50 years of pandering to them is what got us here. should have busted his ass while we were there . MacArthur has his grandad backed into the ocean until the lawyers in washington pulled him back to the 38 .i truly believe there will be a confrontation with them soon as it is the Kim dynasty's only legacy .

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          SK protesters are saying that deploying the THAAD anti missile systems are not environmentally friendly and shoudln't happen
                          I wear a Fez. Fez-es are cool

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            because they have a liberal leader now. he thinks he can talk with those morons.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              When I was stationed in Korea from '94-'95, much of the younger generation (college age and below) were in support of reunification and opposed to the American military presence. The older generation laughed them off, reminding that they don't remember what it was like. As that older generation dies off, and the Gen X and Millennials moves into power, I would expect to hear even more of that.

                              FWIW, I think reunification is a good goal, as long as it's done by destroying Pyongyang and ousting the North's leadership 100%.

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