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Old 03-15-2022, 12:36 PM   #41
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Old 03-15-2022, 06:48 PM   #42
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Old 03-16-2022, 06:54 AM   #43
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John R Bruning
Stefan Korshak
Shane Glasspool
Roy's notes:this is, some really good insight from John, into the morale of the RT forces at present. I'm going to be including Shane,in these posts from now on(and sharing his stuff too).Shane is ex PWRR(sniper)and on the front line in Kyiv/Irpin.
Evening Update:
1. There is some sort of Ukrainian counter-offensive underway. Very sketchy information at the moment, but some sources are saying the Russians have been pushed out of Irpin to the West of Kyiv. The Russians had apparently secured about 30% of the city. There have been gains made to the east of Kyiv as well. In the south, Ukrainian forces overran a Russian artillery battery at Mykolaiv on the Black Sea.
If this is true, the timing is perfect. The Russians are in consolidation mode in the northwest and northeast, morale low and their supplies still depleted.
Additionally, there is footage of a Ukrainian airborne unit advancing past burnt out Russian tanks in the contested breakaway region of Luhansk.
There's a media black out right now. Should be more news later tonight.
2. Russian heavy bombers are up once again, targeting Ukrainian cities.
3. The Ukrainians killed another Russian general. This makes 4 Russian and 1 Chechen general in 20 days. Major General Oleg Mityaev commanded the 150th Motor Rifle Division, which is currently involved in the siege at Mariupol on the southern coast. He was the deputy commander of all Russian forces in Syria last year, and a former airborne brigade commander earlier in his career. The Azov Battalion, the far-right militia that has been operating in the Donbas break away region, has claimed credit for killing him. The Azov Battalion is part of the defense of Mariupol.
4. I'm including a photo of General Mityaev and apparently one of the honor guard at his funeral composed of airborne troops from his old brigade. Take a close look at the honor guard and let me know what it says to you.
5. US and Chinese officials met in Rome today and had what was apparently a seven hour blunt-fest over Ukraine and the Chinese sending military aid/economic aid to the Russians. The Chinese released a statement that did not condemn the Russians, but did say they respected the international order and international boundaries. Off the record, they made it clear they are not happy with what the Russians are doing. The officials on each side were: U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and senior Chinese foreign policy adviser Yang Jiechi. No real details on what emerged from the talks, but apparently the U.S. took a very hard line and threatened the Chinese with consequences if they sent aid to Russia.
6. The Russians may be planning to execute an amphibious landing along the Black Sea Coast near Odesa. They have some naval infantry and ships off shore, and earlier today ham radio operators allegedly heard the Black Sea Fleet HQ at Sevastopol send a priority flash codeword in Morse Code.
If this is the execute order for an amphibious landing is not known, but it engendered a lot of speculation that it may be. The amphibious task force has been tracked on open source sat imagery for several days. There are roughly 4,000 Russian naval infantry aboard that task force.
7. Forte 11, a US intelligence gathering drone which has been operating in theater since before the invasion, is orbiting south of the Russian amphibious task force over the Black Sea tonight.
8. Russian violence toward unarmed civilians seems to be growing. A drunk Russian soldier murdered a 10 year old girl in front of her uncle in a village about 40 miles outside of Kyiv. Additionally, I am posting this link to show an outrageous example of this uptick in direct violence, not just artillery and aerial bombing, against civilians. It is graphic and horrible. A Russian tank crew uses a main gun round to literally murders a civilian walking on the street in front of their position. As far as I can tell, he posed zero threat to them.
https://twitter.com/Ukraine.../statu...23350979833859...
9. There is an audio recording that has been released by the Ukrainians allegedly from an intercepted cell phone call of a Russian soldier calling home. He was drunk and spoke of seeing two trainloads of dead Russian troops being hauled home (another possible data point on the mobile crematorium stories). He said there were Russian generals who have committed suicide, stories of self-inflicted wounds to get out of combat, He said he was ordered to shoot Ukrainian civilians. This is all unverified.
Photos: Russian Major General Oleg Mityaev and what apparently was his honor guard from the elite Russian 11th Airborne Brigade during his memorial service.
Last thing: Thank you all for the kind words regarding these posts. They're deeply appreciated.
Ukraine Liberation Front �� on Twitter
TWITTER.COM
Ukraine Liberation Front �� on Twitter
“#Mariupol / #UkraineUnderAttack Russian Army Tanker Murders
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Old 03-16-2022, 07:44 AM   #44
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Paul Varga
The one thing i find a little puzzling is that back in January the consensus among the military analysis community was that Ukraine had a standing army of about 290000 before they impressed all eligible males and added foreign volunteers and even women and teenagers that want to fight. The immediate prewar estimates of total Russian personnel at about 180k spread over the length of their border from Belarus to the Black Sea. All the news reports seem to indicate Russian losses in the tens of thousands, thousands of vehicles. The Russians have been static it seems for almost two weeks. We have by all accounts provided at least 17000 Javelins which without any other weapons would be enough to destroy every vehicle in the Russian mechanized brigades which under normal warfare situations leave their infantry and heavy weapons and rear echelon forces open to attack. My question is if the Russian logistics is bad, they are picking off armor and apcs like flies and they have enough anti tank weapons, why is it that the Ukrainians have not closed with the enemy and forced them to withdraw??? I see all these posts about how bad the Russians are losing and being killed, yet i have not heard one iota about any sort of an advance to the east forcing the Russians back to their own borders??? If the Ukrainian military losses have not as been severe, i would think they have enough men to rally and start a push back but all i have seen is plea for more and more weapons?? And the truth is once the steppes dry out and harden from the late winter rains and snow, Russian armor will more likely disperse and not remain as juicy targets on roads and main highways. Basically an endless defense never wins a war. As long as they don't start a concerted and broad front counteroffensive driving back the Russians in a sweeping advance, all i see happening is either the use of bigger and more destructive stand off weapons by the Russians to pulverize the cities into dust or they will keep throwing expendable men in ground units into the breach to replace men killed but whose units as a whole have not been forced to withdraw.
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Paul Varga I think the Ukrainians have been hit very hard too, but their reserves are now mobilized with gave them an extra 200,000 men. And what looks to be a large counter-offensive is now underway. The timing for that could not be better with how dire the Russian supply situation seems to be
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Old 03-16-2022, 07:45 PM   #45
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March 16 - Day 21 - The UAF strikes back
Hi FB,
I think the most important thing that happened today was “limited” counterattacks to the north of Kyiv. The important part is what “limited” actually means here.
According to UAF official sources they made a concerted but limited porthward push to the west of Kyiv, vicinity of Makarivka, the main element of which was a lot of artillery. It’s not clear how much or if the Ukrainians advanced in this area, but according to the Ukrainians the Russian Federation (RF) units took some punishment. In Brovary, I am told, there was a big artillery shoot during the night, and then things have been quiet. Later in the day the UAF reported it turned back a big column at Vishneve and put in a counter-attack, again with lots of artillery. In Irpen’, I am told, the village is fully under UAF control and yet another big RF vehicle column was smashed. None of this is confirmed, but I am confident in these sources. A Radio Liberty reporter posted images of a smashed tank and said saw UAF forces captured a village, and five RF combat vehicles. This engagement was reportedly to the north of Kyiv, but no more specifics.
Taken together, all this leads me to guess that the UAF tried to push forward to the north of Kyiv and where it came into contact with RF forces it stopped, engaged with all weapons, and afterwards probably consolidated.
This push, or pushes, was almost certainly linked to the first shelling of Kyiv proper, which took place yesterday, albeit by this war’s standards it wasn’t too much, some hits to a shopping mall and an apartment building with two people killed. This morning, another shell hit another Kyiv apartment building, injuring two. I know it sounds horrible and flippant to reduce smashed homes and dead people to “not too much”. But given the scale of this war, RF strikes like that aren’t even pin pricks. Still, throughout the war the national leadership has been super sensitive about any threat to the capital. What this looks like to me is the start of a careful, casualty-avoiding, but nonetheless systemic attempt to push the RF back.
Let that sink in a little: Three weeks into the war, and the Ukrainians are counterattacking. For real.
General Zaluzhny, UAF commander, today said there were counterattacks at “several other locations”. No more details. Most likely these attacks - assuming they happened - were purely local and the main goals were local as well: improve the terrain the UAF holds, or damage and destroy the enemy.
A counter strike we speculated about yesterday was confirmed today: Indeed, the Ukrainians did hit Kherson airfield, yes, the airfield had a couple of dozen RF helicopters on it, and you don’t have to guess, NASA released satellite pix showing at least six and probably eight or more RF choppers burning, and pock marks all over the tarmac. I’m not clear whether the UAF air force or artillery did the work. Maybe both.
Then there was this upbeat item: Remember the mayor of Melitpool, Ivan Fedorov, whom the Russian arrested and hauled away, because they captured his town and he refused to collaborate? Details are thin, but, it appears the Ukrainian special forces in a raid of some kind freed him from Russian detention, and he’s back in UAF hands. A video appeared of Zelenskyy taking to Federov, who had been held and according to news reports tortured, for nearly a week.
It doesn’t look good when the scary country that invented the KGB and the Great Purges, loses prisoners to Ukrainian special operations teams.
News reports in Odessa were scrambling all over each other over the last 24 hours to report on six RF warships, led by the cruiser Moskva, followed by landing ships potentially carrying 4,000 RF Marines, that had sortied the day before from Sevastopol, and now were sailing back and forth north of Odessa region. At one point, according to the reports, the RF ships bombarded a village called Novoselivka, reportedly 900 rounds fired. Base on previous news reports, the UAF has an installation in the vicinity.No information on damage or casualties.
According to a pair of Odessa officials, sunrise brought a pair of RF Su-34 fighter-bombers quite close to the city itself. UAF air defense, according pretty much every Ukrainan news agency today, shot both of them down, supposedly within view of early-rising Odessite on the shore. The pilots reportedly catapulted successfully but, given the near freezing temperatures in the Black Sea, there was little chance they survived, the reports said.
In Mariupol,during the day a report came in that the commander of Azov Regiment, Mykola “Hook” Kravchenko, died in combat.The Regimental statement said his father died two weeks ago, in Kharkiv, and that Azov would fight on.Later in the day shocking reports came in that the RF dropped a bomb on the Drama Theater in which - I hope this isn’t true - were sheltering more than 1,000 people whose homes elsewhre had been destroyed. Fighting is continuing. I have no information on whether a relief convoy got in or out.
The second half of the day, news wise, was pretty much overwhelmed with reports of progress in the peace talks, which according to participants have been going fairly well. The key points were that the Ukrainians generally agree to give up on NATO and be neutral, and to keep “certain” weapon systems out of Ukrainian territory. The Russians, for their part, will go back to the pre-February 24 start lines, and give up on their condition that Ukraine recognize Russian ownership of Crimea and the “independence” of the DLPR.
The sticking point, and it’s a big one, is how Ukraine guarantees it security against Russia in the future. Several Ukrainian officials have said this would be impossible without a third party nation with nukes being obliged by treaty to step in and fight with Ukraine, if Ukraine is invaded again. There aren’t that many nuclear states and I’m not sure India or Pakistan would agree to the role. The implication - and this is why Ukraine’s status gets attention in Beijing and Washington, is that if Ukraine can’t get a guarantee like that, then the war goes on, and Ukraine will have every incentive to develop nuclear weapons of its own. If they haven’t started already. In any case, by evening Kyiv had come out with a formal statement that it’s way too early to discuss ceasefire terms, all that can be said is the talks are ongoing.
Here is one possible reason why the Ukrainians might not be in a hurry: Today the Americans did what they do best, they threw overwhelming resources at a problem. Following a Zelenskyy Zoom speech to Congress, Washington approved a one billion dollar military aid package to Ukraine. Among the weapons are 800 more Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, 9,000 anti-tank missiles (among that 2,000 more javelins and 6,000 AT4 rockets), 5,000 rifles, grenade launchers, machine guns, (i.e, enough to equip Ukraine’s special forces command about twice, or an expanded special forces command once) and 20 million rounds of ammunition. Plus 25,000 sets of body armor and helmets.This is all infantry firepower, and as the war has shown, well-armed Ukrainian infantry stops Russian attacks cold.
Beyond that, the Americans are sending 100 kamikaze UAVs, called Switchblade. Each has a range of about 50 km, it’s faster than a Bayraktar, and it’s almost cheaper than a vanilla artillery shell. So you can have lots of them. The small one kills people, the big version destroys vehicles. This is a top-of-the-line, cutting-edge weapon that, in the hands of soldiers who know how to use it, make it close to impossible for an opponent to move in the open. Once these weapons get into Ukrainian hands, they will have the ability to drop a smart munition onto, well, anything. 100 l assume is a sample - these things are supposed to be really cheap. So later lots of them.
Late addition: I see now the British are sending their hand-held anti-aircraft missiles, and the Slovakians are thinking about sending big S-300 anti-aircraft missiles.
I won’t say game over Russia, but I will say all this weaponry is a very good reason for the Ukrainians to drag out the negotiations. The writing is on the wall. Not only will the sanctions bite, but, over time, what with all the material in the pipeline for the Ukrainians, the RF’s already badly beaten-up invasion force will get whittled down to very little. From where I sit the Ukrainians are now clearly winning, and every day a ceasefire is delayed, the scale of their victory is going to get bigger.
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Old 03-17-2022, 06:31 PM   #46
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Hilarious how the gas prices are putins fault, when Bidet shut off the pipeline.
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Old 03-19-2022, 09:14 PM   #47
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Saturday Update I:
Strategic:
1. Reportedly, Putin has plans to ban all foreign companies that do not return by May 1. The ban will last ten years.
2. Two UK tabloids, the Daily Star and the Mirror, reported Putin announced to his inner circle that they would be participating in a nuclear evacuation drill. His advisors were shocked, but all agreed. The political leadership of the country was then informed and asked to participate as well.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/.../vladimi...n-asks-kremlin...
This story comes from one source, GeneralSVR. This is a Telegram and Youtube channel of Russians who claim to have connections within Putin's inner circle. I have no visibility yet on its credibility. Most recently, the feed's Telegram posts state that the Russians have lost 17,000 men in combat, including mercenaries, since the invasion began.
Could this be true? Supporting evidence: the recent Rossiya Special Flight Squadron's activities mentioned in earlier posts suggest they were running some sort of exercise. So it is possible. I have found no other sources on this to back it up, so it unconfirmed rumor at this point.
However, one thing to keep in mind: Most of the US and Russia's nuclear warheads are in storage. Each side has roughly 1600 weapons active, thousands more in storage. There is a big distinction between tactical/theater/strategic weapons.
Tactical warheads are small yield--some less than a kiloton, others less than 100 kilotons. For reference, Hiroshima was roughly estimated at between 15-25 kilotons depending on the source.
Tactical warheads are designed to be used on the battlefield to influence the course of a conventional conflict. They can be mounted on the same surface-to-surface missiles currently being used to attack Ukraine with conventional explosives. They can also be dropped from aircraft (bombs).
Theater nuclear weapons are mounted on longer ranged missles and were originally designed during the Cold War to be intermediate ranged-missiles with the range to hit targets throughout Europe.
Strategic nuclear weapons are much higher yield thermonuclear warheads that are carried aboard ballistic missile submarines or on intercontinental ballistic missiles, fired from mobile launchers (US has them in silos). There are also strategic weapons carried by bombers by both sides.
Despite the nuclear threats Putin has made over the past couple of weeks, the BBC and other sources, including various nuclear policy experts from different US think tanks, have noted that the Russians have not moved any warheads out of storage, and their nuclear forces have not indicated any higher state of readiness.
Several of their warhead storage facilities are within about 60 miles of the Ukrainian border. As of a few days ago, there's been no unusual activity at them.
There is a sense among some of these nuclear weapons analysts that the Russian nuclear force is a deterrent that has rotted from the inside, as the Army clearly has. Low functionality, low readiness. Lots of issues.
Lastly, there has been lots of scary chatter on various cable news shows, lots of speculation on whether Putin will use nuclear weapons and what the West's response will be. So far, there is no real-world indication that I can find that he is moving this direction.
The mainstream media chatter on this, the tabloid chatter and the speculation by "experts" I know is probably stressing a lot of us out right now. I would say this: ignore that stuff. It isn't news, it is infotainment.
Instead, keep an eye on these folks:
1. The Wilson Center is non-partisan think tank with great insight on what is going on all over the world. Its blog articles cover every aspect of foreign relations and all the current issues facing the US.
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/insight...95%2C194%2C209
2. The Carnigie Institute is another great think tank and resource.
https://carnegieendowment.org/
3. Ankit Panda is a nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie.
Ankit Panda That is his twitter feed.
4. @james_acton32 is a co-director at the Carnegie and a nuclear policy expert.
5. The Stimson Center is another great policy think tank. It has a focus on nuclear weapons and nonproliferation.
https://www.stimson.org/nonproliferation/
6. @WilliamMMoon Is a fellow at the Stimson who focused on nuclear security. This is his twitter feed.
These are incredibly stressful times, and lots of alarmist stuff is being thrown around that affect all of us. These six are all worth watching/checking/following for much better insight on what is happening.
The one thing the pandemic has taught me is this: ignore the popular media and the news talk shows. Go straight to the experts. They are out there, connected on social media, especially Twitter. Their research institutes and think tanks are out there as well.
Each realm of experts have their own "Twitterverse"--from WWII historian Twitter, to 49'er Twitter, to Biodefense Science Twitter, etc. Tapping into them, asking questions, swapping information in return for insight into the book business, etc---making contacts is how I followed the pandemic, the fall of Afghanistan, and now the war in Ukraine with all its many global consequences. Anyone can do it. Over the past two years, I've masqueraded at a journalist to gain access to telebriefings and other events. I've always been a fly on the wall, never asking questions. I've come away with strong opinions on a lot of matters related to how our media currently functions from those moments, and that's what has driven me to seek out these alternate sources.
Thanks, all, for being so appreciative of these posts. It means a lot.
JohnB
Vladimir Putin 'asks Kremlin staff to perform doomsday nuclear attack drill'
MIRROR.CO.UK
Vladimir Putin 'asks Kremlin staff to perform doomsday nuclear attack drill'
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Old 03-19-2022, 09:18 PM   #48
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Sorry Guys, missed this post from yesterday:

Evening Update:
Today has been a significant one in Ukraine. I'm going to break the update into two parts, Strategic and Ukraine specific. Today's protest aboard the ISS needs its own moment here, as it is tectonic.
Three men in space, representing their nation to the world. Wearing the colors of the country their leader has invaded.
Amazing.
I've made this public. Please share far and wide.
Strategic:
1. Seven NATO nations have stated they will support sending a NATO peacekeeper force into Ukraine. They are: Denmark, Poland, Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. France and Slovakia have signaled they would vote to support this as well.
2. Putin held what could only be described as a bizarre rally in Moscow today, attended by "200,000" people (the stadium holds 80,000). He made Biblical references and made comments about Russian fighting against genocide. A BBC reporter was on the scene and asked people what they thought. Interesting things happened.
First, a lot of them refused to speak to the BBC. The anti-war protesters with a lot more to lose almost always talk to the Western media when present. Some were so nervous as to cover their faces.
Second: Those who did talk to the BBC reporter said the same things.
--My entire workplace was ordered to attend the rally or face termination.
--I was told I had to show up or I would lose wages.
--There seemed to be a preponderance of government/public employees. Teachers, public works folks, civil functionaries, etc.
--Students were given the day off from studying if they showed up to a concert. They were not told it was a pro-war rally.
--The people largely willing to talk to the BBC crew were opposed to the war.
3. Russia is blocking Youtube as of today.
4. Three Russian cosmonauts arrived at the International Space Station today. Normally, their flight suits are either blue or light colored. See the photo for what they wore today.
What a message this sends the world, to Russians and to Putin.
I confess, when I saw this, I got choked up. Total guts move, and if Putin survives this, when they get back the consequences to them will be significant.
Being a late-Cold War era kid, the Cosmonauts were always hailed as heroes of the Soviet State. Outright defiance to the Krelmlin like this would have been unthinkable. This is a remarkable moment.
https://twitter.com/jeanv00/status/1504959258546348033...
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Old 03-19-2022, 10:25 PM   #49
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Brief Saturday Night Update:
Ukraine:
1. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW)'s daily assessment called the Russian invasion a failure today. "Ukrainian forces have defeated the Russians in the first campaign of the war." They foresee a very bloody stalemate and made comparisons to WWI trench warfare.
2. When the initial invasion failed, the Russians resorted to firepower applied to Ukrainian cities in hopes of breaking morale and forcing a surrender by slaughtering civilians. The lesson of WWII is that deliberating targeting civilians hardens resolve, it does not destroy it. See the Battle of Britain or the massive bombing campaign against Germany as examples.
That is exactly what has happened here. The Russian decision to kill innocents has guaranteed Ukrainians will continue to fight hard, and that the chance of integrating Ukraine successfully into a great Russian federation is now next to impossible.
3. Belarussian railroad workers unilaterally destroyed the rail lines connecting Ukraine and their country. This was done as a direct protest of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and has massive strategic implications for the Russians. They are absolutely dependent on rail-based re-supply--even more so now that their logstical brigades have lost so many trucks and fuel tankers. In order to supply the forces in what had been their main effort against Kyiv--the Northwest pincer-- they will have to use trucks exclusively, and the pipelines they've been assembling.
This is an extraordinary act of defiance and a significant strategic victory for the Ukrainians. It should also be noted that during the Russian Revolution, the railway workers were among the first to turn on the government and were always in the vanguard of the movement.
Exactly how they destroyed the connections has not been released.
https://twitter.com/franakviac.../st...44711086444545
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1505223206780780544
For a map of the rail lines in Belarus, see this:
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...62979478179853
4. The Russians launched a hypersonic missile--from what I gather it is essentially an Iskander surface-to-surface missile reconfigured for launch from a Russian aircraft-- at a munitions storage facility. There are conflicting accounts of what and where this missile hit. Early reports suggested the Russians targeted a facility close to the Romanian border.
One source reports that the target was an old 12th GUMO nuclear weapons storage facility from the Cold War. Ukraine gave up all its nuclear weapons in the 1990s in return for security guarantees (which have been ignored), but the infrastructure for storing them is still there.
The 12th GUMO is the Russian military district that oversaw and continues to oversee their nuclear weapons storage facilities.
The Russians believed it was being used as a missile storage site and did not target it because they thought the Ukrainians have nuclear weapons there.
The Drive has investigated and concluded they hit a facility already hammered by artillery fire in Eastern Ukraine. See that here:
https://www.thedrive.com/.../we-have-questions-about...
The significance of this attack is that it was intended to showcase a new type of weapon system that the West has not yet fielded. So, it was a message to NATO, part of the ongoing undertone of the war. Lots of subtle and not so subtle messages being sent back and forth right now. Just like in the Cold War.
5. Another analyst worth following is https://twitter.com/JominiW
His assessment today is very thorough with detailed battle maps that I have included below. He concluded that the Russians have a.) lost the strategic initiative. b.) Are facing the real possibility that they will not be able to achieve anything to justify their expenditure in lives and treasure. c.) Have become increasingly focused on purging captured areas of local leadership & hunting insurgents. d.) That if they can't get their offensive underway anytime soon, Ukrainian counter-attacks will only increase and score more blows.
More on the strategic situation tomorrow.
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Old 03-20-2022, 10:38 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by 68RR View Post
2. When the initial invasion failed, the Russians resorted to firepower applied to Ukrainian cities in hopes of breaking morale and forcing a surrender by slaughtering civilians. The lesson of WWII is that deliberating targeting civilians hardens resolve, it does not destroy it. See the Battle of Britain or the massive bombing campaign against Germany as examples.
That is exactly what has happened here. The Russian decision to kill innocents has guaranteed Ukrainians will continue to fight hard, and that the chance of integrating Ukraine successfully into a great Russian federation is now next to impossible.rrow.
that's fucked up
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Old 03-20-2022, 03:02 PM   #51
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that's fucked up
Guess you never heard of Douhet's Strategic Theory, and it's use since WW1.
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Old 03-20-2022, 03:58 PM   #52
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Sunday Update:
1. The Russians have given Ukraine until March 21 to surrender Mariupol. No explanation of what would happen if they did not.
2. The Belurus diplomatic mission left Ukraine this weekend, fueling speculation that the Belarus government would send its army into Ukraine. Or at least try to.
3. The Russians have "disappeared" over a thousand civilians they have detained in Mariupol. Nobody knows where they have been taken or their fate.
4. Russian forces have scored a number of wins this weekend. They hit a barracks in Mykolaiv and killed or wounded scores of Ukrainian Soldiers. They also reportedly knocked out 1/5th of the Ukrainian Air Force's remaining MiG-29s in that missile attack on Lviv a few days ago.
5. The Russian air force has barely even operated over Ukraine in recent days. See the chart below in the photo section. Not clear what this is the case.
6. The Russians lost a regimental commander this weekend, plus the a deputy commander of the Black Sea Fleet. He was that command's political officer. He was apparently killed at Mariupol.
7. Russians have allegedly mined the western portion of the Black Sea. No confirmation on that.
8. Two insightful videos: a.) A look at a captured Russian trench/foxhole line outside of Kyiv. Indicative of the static nature of their blitzkrieg now. and b.) This is a Russian convoy getting hit with what looks like an IED. It was probably only a matter of time that mines or IEDs would start salting Russian lines of communication.
https://twitter.com/Osintte.../statu...76617358577664...
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1505481363063025664...
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Old 03-21-2022, 09:03 AM   #53
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Belarus is sending its army toward the Ukrainian border. Its vehicles are marked with red squares painted on their sides.
Belarus has about 50,000 troops total, mostly conscripts who serve for 18 months.
Ukrainian intelligence is concerned that the Belarusians will attack into western Ukraine, effectively opening another front.
The war is unpopular in Belarus among its citizens.


https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status...40938949033988...
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Old 03-21-2022, 09:50 AM   #54
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikK85vkZ2FM
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Old 03-21-2022, 10:34 AM   #55
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https://www.westernjournal.com/defen...fSKXtRbU5xVMDE
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Old 03-21-2022, 01:54 PM   #56
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Quick Noon Update for Monday:
1. Russian troops had been dispersing crowds of Ukrainian civilian protesters by shooting into the air over the weekend. According to video footage I've seen, they fired into the crowd earlier today, inflicting casualties on the civilians. Reportedly grenades were thrown by the Russian troops as well, but I've not been able to confirm that. There were either smoke or tear gas grenades thrown in one video of the scene.
2. The Azov Battalion claims it hit a Russian patrol boat off Mariupol. The Russians are now bombarding the city from the sea with their Black Sea naval units.
3. Ukrainian estimates of Russian troop losses is now 15k KIA. Over the weekend, the Russians allegedly moved 2,500 corpses out of what had been the main effort NW of Kyiv in convoys of ambulances. They were brought to railheads at Belarus for shipment home. Videos of that convoy made the rounds in the pro-war community in Russia and left them pretty shaken at the scale of the losses. Additionally, Russian social media includes a number of active military groups and officer associations, military family groups, etc. Just like the US military has on FB. They've been posting a long, long litany of memorials for fallen members. So, word of the level of carnage the Russian army has endured is getting out.
4. The Ukrainians are claiming they wiped out an entire airborne regiment almost down to the last man. More on that tonight. A lot of officers from that unit are showing up in the social media memorials in Russia, so this may have some validity.
5. The Russians have "disappeared" over 1,000 Ukrainians captured around Mariupol. Exactly where they were taken or what their status is remains unclear. Lots of speculation. This is part of the Russian effort to eliminate anyone who might oppose their occupation, including local officials, mayors, etc.
6. Belarus has not crossed into Ukraine yet. The Telegram feed "GeneralSVR" which has been providing insight into Putin's inner circle and is of uncertain quality, posted last night that the Belarus leadership knows this will be catastrophic if they do join the war, and are delaying as long as they can with Putin growing increasingly strident in his demands they get in the fight.
7. Ukrainian intel leaked that there is a plot against Putin right now, engineered by some of the oligarchs, who intend to poison him and replace him with the head of the FSB. The head of the FSB is an ultra-loyalist hardliner who once stated on the record that Stalin's purges of the 1930s were a necessary and legitimate thing. So, pick your poison. Hahaha. Also, I think this is the Ukrainians trying to mess with Putin and stoke his paranoia. He's already got his intel agencies pointing fingers, purging each other and scrambling around investigating each other for leaks. The Ukrainians are probably just trying to fuel this fire. ��
More tonight.
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Old 03-22-2022, 08:08 AM   #57
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Tuesday Update:
Strategic:
1. Zelensky has said if this round of talks fail, it will mean WWIII. He keeps insisting to meet with Putin personally.
2. Belarus has not entered the fight yet. From reports I've seen, the Belarus government is not thrilled with the idea of invading Ukraine too and is trying to delay/postpone while making enough noise in that direction to appease Putin. There is widespread sabotage going on throughout the country, mostly aimed at the rail network. The rail connections with Ukraine have indeed been severed, but there are examples from all over the country where the rails have been damaged in hopes of derailing trains carrying Russian troops/equipment/supplies. It is reflective of much of the sentiment inside Belarus, where the opposition to the current government is more robust than in Russia, and it is anti-war.
3. Yesterday, the Russians officially protested President Biden calling Putin a "war criminal." Reportedly, they threatened to severe all diplomatic communications with the United States over it.
4. A US Defense Department official estimated that the Russians are very desperately trying to recapture the strategic initiative and gain some momentum on the ground. This is probably the reason for increased Russian aerial activity over the last two days--they flew 300 sorties in one day over the weekend. However, most of the Russian flights are either along the border or just inside Ukrainian territory, suggesting RU air is very conscious of the MPAD/SAM anti-aircraft threat.
5. Same DoD official pointed out the US estimates put the Russians have much of their ballistic missile force left and their cruise missile stockpile at 50%. They've fired half of their country's cruise missiles into Ukrainian targets. Those attacks have shown weaknesses in their precision guided weapons systems that include a.) a higher than expected percentage of duds that failed to explode. b.) A lack of accuracy resulting in many missed targets.
A report from Kyiv today showed photos of a Russian anti-ship missile had been fired into the city. This particular weapon has a secondary surface-to-surface role, but the fact they're using something primarily designed to blow ships up against the Ukrainian capital does lend credence to the many reports that the Russians are running out of precision guided munitions.
See it here: https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status...05464852664320
6. US DoD estimates put the total force committed to Ukraine as 75% of Russia's available combat battalions and 60% of its air assets. DoD estimates believe Russia still has about 90% of its committed forces left, but they are having trouble feeding and supplying their forward units, morale is low and the messaging to the troops as to why this is necessary was poor and non-motivational at best.
Note: The DoD estimates vary significantly and are more conservative than the Ukrainian ones.
7. Russia's primary tank-producing company has suspended production at the moment due to lack of available foreign parts.
8. Russia's largest airport just furloughed 40% of its staff due to the sanctions and reduced number of flights in and outbound.
9. President Biden and the US Government have been warning there is an increased risk that the Russians will launch cyberattacks in response to sanctions. There are additional warnings that they might use chemical weapons in Ukraine.
10. Putin announced an increase in pension payments over the weekend to counter some of the economic hardships the sanctions have imposed on the Russian people.
11. The Russian tabloid that posted the shocking level of Russian losses in an article yesterday has stated they were hacked and the numbers did not come from the Russian Ministry of Defense.
I've tried to directly post the link to the archived story, but Meta is telling me it is fake news and threatening to censor me. Incidentally, the Russians declared Facebook and Meta an "extremist organization" yesterday.
Try this to read for yourself. Maybe this will get around the censors:
https://twitter.com/IAPonom.../statu...01885739765768...
Ukraine:
1. A Russian attack west of Kherson was thrown back. It now appears the Ukrainians are advancing slowly on the city along two axis, and this repelled attack was a local Russian attempt to stop that.
2. I am struggling with this one. The Russians apparently ordered its helicopter units in the south to re-occupy the airfield just outside of Kherson. The Ukrainians have attacked this field six times, and their forward elements involved in the counter offensive are closer to the facility today than they were over the weekend.
Nevertheless, the Russians sent their helicopters back there--and promptly got attacked for a 7th time. No numbers on helicopters destroyed, but some clearly were.
That's either a move of desperation, or the result of sclerotic and inflexible chain of command.
3. A good example of what the Russians are facing behind the lines can be seen here. Ukrainian civilians, armed with AK variants and RPG's can be seen going to ambush Russian convoys near Sumy.
https://twitter.com/TheDead.../statu...42172080861185...
4. The full weight of conventional Russian firepower is falling on those civilians. Entire city blocks are being wiped out in rocket artillery and bombing attacks. The Russians are using thermobaric weapons against civilian targets, and the death toll among Ukraine's population is rising sharply. Currently, there are over 3.3 million Ukrainian refugees in Eastern Europe and 10 million displaced Ukrainians total.
5. Ukrainian resistance has stunned the world, but it is important to remember that in those 3.5 million people in Eastern Europe, there are lots of military aged males who have yet returned to report for conscription and are thus "dodging the draft." So, not everyone is on board with standing and fighting with Zelensky.
6. To counterbalance that, an unconfirmed report is circulating that 300 Russian soldiers refused to continue fighting and deserted en mass near Sumy in the East.
7. Examples of wrecked, abandoned or destroyed Russian main battle tanks are being photographed and circulated on-line, suggesting the best-equipped armored units the Russians have are now in the fight. Most of the tanks destroyed so far have been either ancient T-72s or T-80s.
8. Bottom line: The Russians have made little forward progress anywhere except Mariupol for days now. They're unable to effectively resupply their forward units, there was no offensive activity NW of Kyiv, or NE. Kherson is threatened by Ukrainian counter-attacks and the siege of Mariupol has devastated 80% of a city the size of New Orleans. Fresh units from the Russian eastern military districts are arriving in Belarus and presumably elsewhere along the Ukrainian border, but the reports I've seen suggest these units have low readiness and are not of the quality level of the units already deployed.
Photos; Ukrainian estimates of Russian losses for today. An unexploded Russian rocket near Kharkiv. Interesting markings on a Russian helicopter. Before and after shots of a Ukrainian shopping mall in Kyiv that was struck by the Russians this weekend. Lastly, a chart, unconfirmed, showing what the identification markings mean on the sides of Russian vehicles.
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Old 03-22-2022, 09:07 AM   #58
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https://www.independent.ie/world-new...-41472840.html


Quote:
Russia ‘accidentally reveals’ 10,000 of its soldiers have been killed

Russia’s ministry of defence appeared to accidentally reveal that nearly 10,000 of its soldiers have been killed in Ukraine.
The figure was contained in a report on March 20 by the pro-Kremlin Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper, which has since been deleted from the paper’s website.

Before it was removed, the article quoted the Russian defence ministry as saying that 9,861 Russian soldiers had been killed, and 16,153 were injured, in more than three weeks of fighting. Previously, the Russian military had only admitted that around 500 soldiers had been killed.

The article was taken down from the paper’s website and replaced with a version not including casualty numbers. The newspaper quickly removed the article from its website, describing it as the work of hackers.

Asked about the report, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to comment on it at Tuesday’s conference call with reporters, referring questions about the military casualties to the defense ministry.

On March 2, the defense ministry reported 498 soldiers had been killed and hasn’t released any casualty numbers since then.
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Old 03-23-2022, 09:13 AM   #59
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latest...

Morning Update:
I'm going to break today's post into two pieces, as a bunch of very significant things have happened over the past 24-48 hours. Here's the big picture:
Strategic Update:
1. Belarus is currently expelling Ukrainian diplomats, another sign it will enter the war.
2. Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, has grown exceptionally hawkish with his rhetoric. He was once considered one of the moderates among the senior Russian leadership when he was President. Lots of threats, claims the US wants to break Russia up, nuclear holocaust references, etc. in his latest statements. He also went after Poland, hammering it for supporting Ukraine and stated that one way or another, Poland will lean to Russia again.
See here for a summary: https://www.osw.waw.pl/.../dmitri-me...attacks-poland
This comes after Poland has identified over 40 Russian diplomats as spies and ordered them out of the country. The Russians began burning documents at their embassy in Warsaw either just before, or just after, that accusation. See the photo of the smoke rising over their embassy.
3. China has now publicly stated it will not sustain Russian with military or financial aid to Russia. They then blamed the United States for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
If the Chinese are serious about this, the Russians have no way to replace their vehicle and aircraft losses in the short-term. Funding the war will also become a problem. Lack of Chinese support will limit options for the Russians and make it harder for them to achieve anything significant with conventional forces.
4. Russian oligarch and climate ambassador Anatoly Chubais quit the Putin administration in protest of the war and fled the country.
5. Significant Intelligence Coup: The Ukrainians captured what appears to be an intact Krasukha-4 electronic warfare system about 48 hours ago. Deployed operationally in 2014, it is designed to jam airborne radars, block GPS transmissions to drones and can even block/jam reconnaissance satellites over a battlefield to create an electronic blackout to hide movement of troops and vehicles. This is an absolute state of the art, extremely significant Electronic Warfare system that has been very successful in the past. In its first active deployment, one system destroyed nine drones in a week by severing their connections to GPS sats guiding them.
The importance of getting this system cannot be overstated. Studying it will ensure NATO can find ways to counter this jamming system and render it ineffective. As one former DoD analyst said, "I cannot begin to tell you how big of a loss this is for Russian forces." And, "Ukraine now has the political leverage to get MiGs and SAMS from NATO."
Read more about this here: https://www.thedrive.com/.../ukraine-just-captured-part...
6. Another Russian general got relieved, is under house arrest and is being interrogated. This is the (former) commander of the 6th Combined Arms Army, Lt. General Vladislov Ershov. He is one of the first of the post-Cold War era cadets to rise through the ranks and become a Lt. Gen. He's 46 years old. He is a veteran of the Syrian conflict.
The 6th Combined Arms Army is deployed in the east part of Ukraine, around Kharkiv. It has made little progress, and his relief & arrest was due to "excessive casualties." Allegedly, the 6th CAA lost 2,000 men KIA.WIA, MIA, including 180 conscripts who by Russian law are not supposed to be deployed outside the country.
I think this makes the 10th Russian general relieved. Five Russian and one Chechen generals have reportedly been killed in action.
7. Russian rhetoric about nuclear apocalypse has triggered what the editor of the War Zone has called "Let's talk about nuclear Armageddon day" on social media. Lots of comments and opinions floating around. I'll have a separate post ready later today or tomorrow to lay out the range of insight from various analysts and nuclear security specialists.
Ukraine update will be teed up soon.
Photos: a.) Smoke rising over the Russian embassy in Warsaw, strongly suggestive of document burning. b.) The Krasukha-4 electronic warfare system captured by the Ukrainians. c.) Russian General Ershov, who is now under arrest.
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Old 03-24-2022, 04:42 PM   #60
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I'm sure this will be agonizingly studied for 100's of years just like every military conflict, and it looks like yall are already getting started. But we can just jump straight to the end, Putin/Russia wins. Nobody dares stop him, and the inept bidet admin practically rolled out the red carpet for him. It's funny that they seem to think he's doing something wrong, because their every action would indicate that they wanted this to happen. I guess that's standard leftist logic though. Which is, don't have or use any logic. And damn sure don't think about it from someone else's point of view, in this case russia's. The EU too, what with their buying gas in Rusky money now instead of dollars. Guess it's not the petro dollar anymore lol

Putin is kicking everyone's ass right now, politically speaking. The grand chessboard or whatever you might want to call it. Can't say I feel sorry for the leadership of these governments. They asked for it, now they're getting it.
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