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Old 01-05-2020, 02:18 PM   #41
Strychnine
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I follow some Peshmerga guys on social shit and 20 minutes ago one posted that more rockets were just fired at the embassy in Baghdad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/peshmergaswe
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Old 01-05-2020, 02:26 PM   #42
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there will always be a need for crude oil . it may decrease some but the need for it will still be there .
I'd replace "some" with "dramatically". If it goes so far as to become "some", it will definitely keep going in that direction until it's "dramatically".

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... this year's ...

late summer of this year ...

next year ...
Well I tried.

You're going to have to accept that it does work whether you like it or not. There's a big giant blob of it out there that we call the sun. If they observe it in nature, it's only a matter of time before they copy it.

So I say again, that run time is just going to keep increasing and increasing, until it stays on all the time. I'd really like to hear you address that. Or maybe not.

I mean... do you just not believe that actually happened? I guess they're all lying? Oh well. Also I'm offering no personal opinion on what's good, bad, or ugly. I just like to keep up with all the latest and greatest as some kind of a hobby.

You should also know that you're definitely not alone when "You've heard about it for years". They also "heard about it for years" before they landed on the moon. There were die hards back then that thought the exact same way you do. Saying it was just impossible, or for one reason or another it would just never happen, or they'd simply die when they got there. All proven wrong just as you will be. Fighting against inevitable change like some kind of ancient dinosaur won't stop it. It's also futile.

It's better to be nimble and adapt. When you're too old, they're going to take your license away and give you an electric car that you can't control manually.
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Old 01-05-2020, 03:30 PM   #43
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use all the electric cars you want you still have the petrochemical industry and plastics . i first heard these pipe dreams in the 60's and very little has come to pass .
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Old 01-05-2020, 03:36 PM   #44
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^^^ You are yammering on about something that doesn't exist yet and we are not even entirely sure that it ever will. I have no problem with change but I am an engineer by schooling and I am a very practical one. As of yet there is no replacement for fossil fuels and none of the stuff being discussed will be able to replace them.

Going to the moon was easy by comparison, you just had to figure out how to not die doing it. Point A to point B issues are pretty tame but the budgets need to be really big for some task.
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Old 01-05-2020, 04:59 PM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gasser64
The ratio is something like 50Mw in, 500Mw comes out. They've been able to have that work for... I forget but you can easily search and find out exactly. It was something like 4 min, then 16 min, then later 1 hr, then later still 4 hours.
That's not what your article said.

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The best result is with the British JET, which returns up to 67% of the energy spent. Due to the scale of the ITER design (it will be a huge one about the height of a nine-story building, and about the same diameter), the creators expect that the reactor will be able to emit ten times more energy than is spent on plasma heating (give 500 MW with 50 MW)
50 in 500 out is some future expectation. 67% is a far cry from 1000%.

To makes it clear to everyone, we're now talking about fusion and have strayed far from an embassy and fossil fuels...


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Originally Posted by gasser64
You're going to have to accept that it does work whether you like it or not. There's a big giant blob of it out there that we call the sun. If they observe it in nature, it's only a matter of time before they copy it.
And you just might have to accept that "It exists in nature" is not the same as "we can control it." When you build new chemistry into refining there are three steps - lab bench-top, test unit, and production. Tokamak fusion tech is still early lab stages.

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Going to the moon was easy by comparison, you just had to figure out how to not die doing it. Point A to point B issues are pretty tame but the budgets need to be really big for some task.
True. Earth : Moon via space :: Midwest : west coast via Oregon Trail. Infrastructure was lacking, but knowledge and technology was there. Just keep fighting until someone makes it. Newtonian mechanics + engineering + money + people willing to die = moon. There was no "Fuck, we need new materials to handle this" or "Fuck, we don't even have the money to start playing with this." Throw bodies at it until you get there.



FWIF, I'm certainly not against any of this fusion tech, but to sit here and act like its just around the corner and fossil fuels are going to die tomorrow is asinine. At best, the worlds first tokamak reactor will come online in 2025 and will take at least another 10 years past that to fully power up. Then you have one running... adoption and expansion will take decades more because of the cost. And you'll still have to rebuild powergrids to implement HVDC transmission and eliminate interconnect issues (could cost nearly $5 TRILLION just to do the US)...

It's fun to be a futurist, but to pretend the staus quo is going to change next week is disingenuous.
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Old 01-05-2020, 05:51 PM   #46
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I don't blame him for believing it is right around the corner. There are more intelligent people than him who buy into the story. There are even people who are willing to lose tons of money on the idea. God bless them. Personally I believe that there is tons of money to be made by buying energy companies in the stock market because of this widespread belief.
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Old 01-05-2020, 08:25 PM   #47
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I don't blame him for believing it is right around the corner. There are more intelligent people than him who buy into the story. There are even people who are willing to lose tons of money on the idea. God bless them. Personally I believe that there is tons of money to be made by buying energy companies in the stock market because of this widespread belief.
This story was at a fever pitch when I was in college in the early 90s. Every prediction ever made about the energy business since forever, has been wrong. The energy business keeps improving and adapting too.
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Old 01-05-2020, 08:51 PM   #48
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The energy business keeps improving and adapting too.
So much so, we're killing ourselves by extracting more efficiently and more quantity we are flooding the market and it's depressing the price. Good for the consumer though. You'd be amazed at the things we can do to steel pipe and the lengths we're getting. It's quite astonishing that you can sink a string of pipe into the ground and then go laterally 3.5 miles.
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Old 01-05-2020, 10:44 PM   #49
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So much so, we're killing ourselves by extracting more efficiently and more quantity we are flooding the market and it's depressing the price. Good for the consumer though. You'd be amazed at the things we can do to steel pipe and the lengths we're getting. It's quite astonishing that you can sink a string of pipe into the ground and then go laterally 3.5 miles.
I work on a very different side of this business, but Iím always amazed by the naysayers. One of the big reasons we have $2.20 gas again is American ingenuity and the freedom to develop and profit from your labor. There is a reason the rest of the oil producing world comes to us for tech and knowledge. The ways energy is developed, used, produced will change, but to think we can go green in the near future is absurd.
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Old 01-06-2020, 01:41 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by Strychnine View Post
That's not what your article said.
That'd be why I never said it did. And mentioned doing a search. Cause it didn't.

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to pretend the staus quo is going to change next week is disingenuous.
Jesus. Did you miss the last 10 posts? Next week lol

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I don't blame him for believing it is right around the corner.
I mean... sure if you think that 10-15-20 years is "right around the corner". I don't, but you can if you want to. Hell maybe it's 30 or 40 years, who really knows. But it'll happen. Trouble is most of you guys will have died by then.
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Old 01-06-2020, 02:58 PM   #51
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use all the electric cars you want you still have the petrochemical industry and plastics . i first heard these pipe dreams in the 60's and very little has come to pass .
Reminiscent of the grandiose claims in the 60's that nuclear power plants would generate electricity "too cheap to meter", LOL.
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Old 01-06-2020, 04:38 PM   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gasser64
That'd be why I never said it did. And mentioned doing a search. Cause it didn't.
Your statement, dude, not mine.

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Originally Posted by Gasser64
the working time is increasing. The ratio is something like 50Mw in, 500Mw comes out. They've been able to have that work for... I forget but you can easily search and find out exactly. It was something like 4 min, then 16 min, then later 1 hr, then later still 4 hours. Do you really think they're just going to stop? Be realistic man: They all want this so bad they can taste it, and that run time is just going to keep increasing and increasing, until it stays on all the time
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Old 01-06-2020, 04:46 PM   #53
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every time gasser64 posts...

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Old 01-06-2020, 06:40 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by Strychnine View Post
Your statement, dude, not mine.
Again, the "search" part would cover that. Not real sure what's so hard to understand about that.

Just watch this, it'll serve as a good enough answer to pretty much all that stuff you said. One last time: No I do not think that this is going to happen right now, as I'm typing this. Or even in the next 5 minutes!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZm_mpbKX5c
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Old 01-06-2020, 06:43 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by dsrtuckteezy View Post
every time gasser64 posts...

Dude I'm surprised you can even follow the conversation lol. Given some of the shit you've posted over the years...

Do you even understand what we're talking about? Ever heard of fusion? rofl!

Don't act like you even know what we're talking about
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Old 01-06-2020, 07:31 PM   #56
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Dude I'm surprised you can even follow the conversation lol. Given some of the shit you've posted over the years...

Do you even understand what we're talking about? Ever heard of fusion? rofl!

Don't act like you even know what we're talking about

Fuck right off for trying to make other people feel inferior to your wiki knowledge. What, your 0.5% expertise on the subject is better than someone else's 0.4%?

You don't understand it either. Neither do I. Nor does anyone on this board (generally speaking, we do have other engineers and physicists here, but i still doubt anyone has any working knowledge). Knowing that atoms can fuse together which releases energy, and that there are some projects around the world is not the same as understanding. You read articles. You looked at wiki. You might have listened to podcast or two. You haven't put years of academic work into this, so fuck off with the "do you even understand" bullshit.


Out of curiosity, whats the highest level math class you've taken?
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Old 01-06-2020, 07:51 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by Strychnine View Post
Fuck right off for trying to make other people feel inferior to your wiki knowledge. What, your 0.5% expertise on the subject is better than someone else's 0.4%?

You don't understand it either. Neither do I. Nor does anyone on this board (generally speaking, we do have other engineers and physicists here, but i still doubt anyone has any working knowledge). Knowing that atoms can fuse together which releases energy, and that there are some projects around the world is not the same as understanding. You read articles. You looked at wiki. You might have listened to podcast or two. You haven't put years of academic work into this, so fuck off with the "do you even understand" bullshit.


Out of curiosity, whats the highest level math class you've taken?
I wouldn't even waste your time. The guy knows subject matter like Crawfish knows betting.
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Old 01-06-2020, 08:22 PM   #58
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I wouldn't even waste your time. The guy knows subject matter like Crawfish knows betting.
Trip you want some free picks? I know you want your money back donít get mad
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Old 01-07-2020, 07:34 AM   #59
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Originally Posted by Strychnine View Post
Fuck right off for trying to make other people feel inferior to your wiki knowledge. What, your 0.5% expertise on the subject is better than someone else's 0.4%?

You don't understand it either. Neither do I. Nor does anyone on this board (generally speaking, we do have other engineers and physicists here, but i still doubt anyone has any working knowledge). Knowing that atoms can fuse together which releases energy, and that there are some projects around the world is not the same as understanding. You read articles. You looked at wiki. You might have listened to podcast or two. You haven't put years of academic work into this, so fuck off with the "do you even understand" bullshit.


Out of curiosity, whats the highest level math class you've taken?
I specifically stopped taking physics once it got to the atomic level because I knew I wasnít smart enough to understand it. I do still laugh about the cold fusion hoax though, because one thing is for sure, fusion generates a lot of heat (see Sun).

I do know a tiny bit more about the energy business though, particularly hydrocarbon sourced. There is a reason why I have contracts that will end after I retire. This business isnít going anywhere for a long time. Green energy sources are great and the way of the future, but the technology and innovation and ease of use is far behind the hydrocarbon business. Texas has scads of idle wind power generators. Itís a lot easier to get oil and gas from Odessa to Dallas than it is windpower from Amarillo and itís cheaper. Until that changes, this green energy ideal is still a dream. Itís a working dream, but things still need improved upon.
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Old 01-07-2020, 08:20 AM   #60
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Originally Posted by Strychnine View Post
Fuck right off for trying to make other people feel inferior to your wiki knowledge. What, your 0.5% expertise on the subject is better than someone else's 0.4%?

You don't understand it either. Neither do I. Nor does anyone on this board (generally speaking, we do have other engineers and physicists here, but i still doubt anyone has any working knowledge). Knowing that atoms can fuse together which releases energy, and that there are some projects around the world is not the same as understanding. You read articles. You looked at wiki. You might have listened to podcast or two. You haven't put years of academic work into this, so fuck off with the "do you even understand" bullshit.


Out of curiosity, whats the highest level math class you've taken?
The reply to this one will be great. I work in engineering (though not an engineer because I just grew tired of mathing all the time in school), and I can keep up with structural stuff extremely well. That being said, a colleague of mine made the statement years ago that I'm really good at playing dumb.

Most people that have knowledge do not feel the need to always prove so. You are great at that in that when you post something, it is thorough and filled with facts or states otherwise if needed. Gasser on the other hand just spouts random shit and decries he's an expert. It cracks me up to see "go search it" in his posts. I am sure his response to this one will be gold...
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