Where to put money?

[Broncojohnny]

Muddywaters is fucking phenomenal. An asset management outfit that does the diligence, takes short positions in these shitty Chinese companies, then a couple weeks later exposes the shit out of them. I'm loving it.

http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/about/

I remember reading about them. They had called seven in a row I think? lol

[Silverback]

How can you have faith in any Chinese company when the government can come in at any time and take over the company, the industry or both? It's absurd.

Sounds like the Obamaplan!

[slow99]

It is like the wild west over there. Much like the robber baron age of 130 years ago here in the US. How can you have faith in any Chinese company when the government can come in at any time and take over the company, the industry or both? It's absurd.

Muddywaters is fucking phenomenal. An asset management outfit that does the diligence, takes short positions in these shitty Chinese companies, then a couple weeks later exposes the shit out of them. I'm loving it.

http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/about/

[Broncojohnny]

The Chinese shit is really coming home to roost, imo. Have you seen anything about "Muddy Waters"? I for one love it and am all for it. These Chinese companies are a fucking joke. I mean a real fucking joke. We're "vetting" a couple right now and it's absurd. I'm glad they're getting exposed.

It is like the wild west over there. Much like the robber baron age of 130 years ago here in the US. How can you have faith in any Chinese company when the government can come in at any time and take over the company, the industry or both? It's absurd.

[Denny]

Funny thing about China; they know how much of a sham they are. That is why they are making the necessary purchases now while the hype is up.

[slow99]

With the Euro situation and the Chinese situation that value isn't going anywhere anytime soon. It really does come down to that.

The Chinese shit is really coming home to roost, imo. Have you seen anything about "Muddy Waters"? I for one love it and am all for it. These Chinese companies are a fucking joke. I mean a real fucking joke. We're "vetting" a couple right now and it's absurd. I'm glad they're getting exposed.

[Denny]

With the Euro situation and the Chinese situation that value isn't going anywhere anytime soon. It really does come down to that.

That is versus other currencies. What about the purchasing power loss?

[Broncojohnny]

Undervalued to what? A weak, inflated dollar? OK, I'll give you that.

I don't even want to go into earnings until we get back to a "Mark to Market" type system again. I'll just value my Cobra at $100K and my house at $700K so my earnings look better than last year. Maybe someone will invest in me.

All of these assets that banks and companies hold are either over valued on what they report them to be or holding back from foreclosing to mask the loss.

With the Euro situation and the Chinese situation that value isn't going anywhere anytime soon. It really does come down to that.

[Denny]

You like this post!

I hate that it has to be discussed.

[Silverback]

Undervalued to what? A weak, inflated dollar? OK, I'll give you that.

I don't even want to go into earnings until we get back to a "Mark to Market" type system again. I'll just value my Cobra at $100K and my house at $700K so my earnings look better than last year. Maybe someone will invest in me.

All of these assets that banks and companies hold are either over valued on what they report them to be or holding back from foreclosing to mask the loss.

You like this post!

[Denny]

As Jody mentioned the market is actually undervalued compared to historical norm. What is happening is that many companies are already back to showing the earnings they had before the collapse yet share prices don't reflect that. Problem is that they aren't hiring anyone. If that little problem of hiring would go away the economy would see some recovery. I don't think that is going to happen with Obama in the White House, too much uncertainty. Stock prices will still stay down and won't become undervalued until the retail investor gets back in. That doesn't happen in any cycle until the market gets higher and people start bragging to their friends about how much money they are making in the market. Once the unsophisticated investor gets back in, he is the one who gets taken for a ride and loses his ass.

None of this is a solution for the debt situation in this country, of course. But I will say that I would be more comfortable with a debt crisis here if the economy was humming along before they tried to tackle it.

Undervalued to what? A weak, inflated dollar? OK, I'll give you that.

I don't even want to go into earnings until we get back to a "Mark to Market" type system again. I'll just value my Cobra at $100K and my house at $700K so my earnings look better than last year. Maybe someone will invest in me.

All of these assets that banks and companies hold are either over valued on what they report them to be or holding back from foreclosing to mask the loss.

[Denny]

News flow suggests the Greece situation looking like it's resolved (for now) to be a catalyst. You also can't forget general fund flows.

That "for now" is what keeps my eyebrows raised. Remember Greece's last bail-out? What did that do? What about all the other countries tied to the Euro that are needing the same help? What has changed over the last few years (since 15 Sept 2008) that is driving all of this confidence? Who is it that has all this confidence?

Bear, Lehman, Goldman, Morgan, Maddloff, Enron, Countrywide, Citi, AIG... there are so many variables that can and have changed the market that are beyondcontrol. This is like saying, not that it CAN'T happen again (silly), but that it is not as likely to happen. I'm talking one big fuck up that would effect the market as a whole, not just the company itself. It is bad enough with all of these currencies being manipulated against other currencies and wars being fought over commodities and assets.

To some, the happenings in September of 2008 was a no-brainer, but what about the next time?

[Broncojohnny]

I wasn't about to let you down. LOL

One thing that is really fucking with my head, Jody, is this stock run that seems to be golden lately (pun intended). Greece is about to burn to the ground, Europe is doing some stupid moves that none of the Europeaners want. It will only prolong the inevitable and start a chain reaction that will just be harder to recover from (if at all). We're still headed down the same path with no recovery in sight. The world is coming apart at the seams. No one has money...

Yet, the market's numbers are climbing to almost post 2008 highs?!?! What the fuck am I missing?

As Jody mentioned the market is actually undervalued compared to historical norm. What is happening is that many companies are already back to showing the earnings they had before the collapse yet share prices don't reflect that. Problem is that they aren't hiring anyone. If that little problem of hiring would go away the economy would see some recovery. I don't think that is going to happen with Obama in the White House, too much uncertainty. Stock prices will still stay down and won't become undervalued until the retail investor gets back in. That doesn't happen in any cycle until the market gets higher and people start bragging to their friends about how much money they are making in the market. Once the unsophisticated investor gets back in, he is the one who gets taken for a ride and loses his ass.

None of this is a solution for the debt situation in this country, of course. But I will say that I would be more comfortable with a debt crisis here if the economy was humming along before they tried to tackle it.

[slow99]

I'm just wondering if some of that asset purchasing we talked about instead of another QE could be related. If so, this would be the ultimate pump and dump.

News flow suggests the Greece situation looking like it's resolved (for now) to be a catalyst. You also can't forget general fund flows.
S&P FY1 P/E is about 13 last I checked... not expensive at all.

[Denny]

Run... I guess if you're talking about this week. Market got beat up pretty good before this week. You can't just look at price level, look at valuations. The market as a whole is still on the cheap side. Of course, markets are forward looking and valuations take into account future growth and risk. So, a lower multiple is justified, imo. I'd like to see the dow in the low- to mid- 11s and I'd be confident in purchasing a lot more.

I'm just wondering if some of that asset purchasing we talked about instead of another QE could be related. If so, this would be the ultimate pump and dump.