Deputy brutalizes a family

[Trip McNeely]

^ LMAO. Goodburger was one of the dumbest funny movies ever.

[Shorty]

Not speaking on the above mentioned fund anymore, just moving on to an example of how to think about it. Of course, it's just math, but I think a lot of people forget about how it flows through the model. Leaving nothing else changed, a miss in one period flows through and affects all other numbers.

Take a series of numbers in Excel, start with 1,000 (in millions) year 0 and then grow it 10% per year for 5 years. This is a reasonable projection lots of people might use to value something. You'll have something that looks like this:

0 1 2 3 4 5
1000 1100 1210 1331 1464.1 1610.51


Now, directly under it, copy the same series of numbers. Instead of returning 10% in the first year, return 7.8% year 1 and leave everything else unchanged.

1000 1078 1185.8 1304.38 1434.82 1578.30

Sum of first series of numbers = 6,716. Sum of second series = 6,581.
The $22 million miss at t = 1 translates to a $134 million loss over the period.

Now, if I'm valuing an asset at a multiple of sales (or whatever these numbers may be) ... let's say 6x this terminal value ... my value in the first case is $40,294 million. In the second case, it's $39,488 million. That $22 million loss in the first period negatively impacts my valuation by $806 million.

[Cooter]

Not speaking on the above mentioned fund anymore, just moving on to an example of how to think about it. Of course, it's just math, but I think a lot of people forget about how it flows through the model. Leaving nothing else changed, a miss in one period flows through and affects all other numbers.

Take a series of numbers in Excel, start with 1,000 (in millions) year 0 and then grow it 10% per year for 5 years. This is a reasonable projection lots of people might use to value something. You'll have something that looks like this:

0 1 2 3 4 5
1000 1100 1210 1331 1464.1 1610.51


Now, directly under it, copy the same series of numbers. Instead of returning 10% in the first year, return 7.8% year 1 and leave everything else unchanged.

1000 1078 1185.8 1304.38 1434.82 1578.30

Sum of first series of numbers = 6,716. Sum of second series = 6,581.
The $22 million miss at t = 1 translates to a $134 million loss over the period.

Now, if I'm valuing an asset at a multiple of sales (or whatever these numbers may be) ... let's say 6x this terminal value ... my value in the first case is $40,294 million. In the second case, it's $39,488 million. That $22 million loss in the first period negatively impacts my valuation by $806 million.

[Trip McNeely]

All this math is just so tough to understand. I better get a job beating minorities and then covering it up.

lol! Make sure you glue your whos who award to the dashboard of your cruiser.

[Broncojohnny]

All this math is just so tough to understand. I better get a job beating minorities and then covering it up.

[slow99]

1 basis point is .01%, so 220 basis points is 2.2%. 2.2% when dealing with money in this scale is a FUCKTON of money

Not speaking on the above mentioned fund anymore, just moving on to an example of how to think about it. Of course, it's just math, but I think a lot of people forget about how it flows through the model. Leaving nothing else changed, a miss in one period flows through and affects all other numbers.

Take a series of numbers in Excel, start with 1,000 (in millions) year 0 and then grow it 10% per year for 5 years. This is a reasonable projection lots of people might use to value something. You'll have something that looks like this:

0 1 2 3 4 5
1000 1100 1210 1331 1464.1 1610.51


Now, directly under it, copy the same series of numbers. Instead of returning 10% in the first year, return 7.8% year 1 and leave everything else unchanged.

1000 1078 1185.8 1304.38 1434.82 1578.30

Sum of first series of numbers = 6,716. Sum of second series = 6,581.
The $22 million miss at t = 1 translates to a $134 million loss over the period.

Now, if I'm valuing an asset at a multiple of sales (or whatever these numbers may be) ... let's say 6x this terminal value ... my value in the first case is $40,294 million. In the second case, it's $39,488 million. That $22 million loss in the first period negatively impacts my valuation by $806 million.

[racrguy]

I'm not so good with ciphering and numbers and other wizardry, but that don't sound too good

1 basis point is .01%, so 220 basis points is 2.2%. 2.2% when dealing with money in this scale is a FUCKTON of money

[Cooter]

I'm not so good with ciphering and numbers and other wizardry, but that don't sound too good

[slow99]

Can we get back to a cop explaining financials to Jody? That's much more entertaining than him and Eric name calling IMO.

Lmao. Depends on who you listen to, okay. If you listen to the independent auditors/actuaries, it's negative over a billion dollars. Those same auditors who are using an assumed ongoing rate of return of 8% for a fund that's generated an average of 1.2% over the last three years.

The managers say it's okay ... and hell, they only threw up a return that underperformed a blended index by 220 basis points last year.

[Trip McNeely]

Fuck no.

Self indulgent wiener.

Did you find out if that was Bud Bundy yet?

[Trip McNeely]

Self indulgent wiener.

heh, I remember when I first joined (or soon afterwards) Tali deserved an ass whooping in my book and dodged, ducked, dipped, dived, and dodged it somehow or another. My opinion of that aspect is irrelevant, what matters is just how many people he continually gets that pissed off over the years. Any casual observer is going to know nothing will come of it, but lemmings will be lemmings I guess.

Looks like you joined around the time the original JITB, 15 minutes went down. Good times. Hell, I was at Pappa's Pizza every Thursday night back then. If someone really wanted to, I wouldn't have been hard to find. I never missed the big GTGs, parties and car shows when they were all regular things. Still usually don't, they are just very infrequent these days.

So is Eric's middle name Arnold? My first name is Roger (named after Staubach) have at it!

Roger, Roger. What's our vector, Victor?

[sc281]

So is Eric's middle name Arnold? My first name is Roger (named after Staubach) have at it!

[BradM]

So is Eric's middle name Arnold? My first name is Roger (named after Staubach) have at it!