Some info from the Ukraine

[68RR]

Strategic Update:
Today's post will deal with the unthinkable--use of nuclear weapons. Lots and lots of scary articles in the mainstream media, talk and chatter on the web right now. It all looks super alarming.
It is important to remember that the threat of nuclear war is still very low. Not impossible, but remote.
There have been no reported movements of tactical warheads out of Russian storage facilities. I have not seen any NBC (Nuclear, Biological, Chemical) gear captured by the Ukrainians. They've captured everything else, so either the Russians did not deploy with it, or the Ukrainians are censoring images of that stuff.
Putin's "Special combat alert" for his nuclear forces has not appeared to make any difference in their posture, and it is still unclear if it actually meant any concrete steps were taken, or if it was just part of Putin's brinksmanship to scare the West.
Here's some of the more recent developments on this front, along with the different range of viewpoints on this that I've found. Keep in mind the context: the threat right now is low.
---------------------------
1. A Russian lawmaker, Alexei Zhuravlyov, stated publicly that if NATO sends a "peacekeeping" force into Ukraine, the Russians will strike back with nuclear weapons against those troops and target Warsaw. Zhuravlyov is a member of the Rodina ultra-nationalist, communist party, and advocated kidnapping U.S. Congressman Ruben Gallego in December for being an advocate of aid to Ukraine. Gallego's public response was, "F-- around and find out." So, two super geniuses of statesmanship right here. He has appeared on camera in a military uniform telling people he was going to the front (in February) and urged everyone to fight to liberate the Donbas. He's stated publicly that the world is Russia's to own and dominate.
Here is his appearance on Russian TV where he advocates nuclear war in the event of NATO intervention: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueQTxtWV-AU
2. One of Russia's diplomats at the UN did an interview with conservative Australian TV station Skynews and said the West should not threaten a nuclear power (Russia). See that here at CNN:
https://www.cnn.com/.../h_8ba993d756...191a26152f396f
3. The French reportedly cycled onto a higher nuclear alert last night. The French reportedly surged three of their four nuclear-weapon-armed submarines to sea. Normally, they rotate to keep one at sea at all times. France has about 300 warheads.
4. The Biden administration has not escalated or put American strategic forces at a higher DEFCON. 5= no threat, 1= war imminent. Exactly where they are on the DEFCON scale is conjecture--mainly that STRATCOM is at DEFCON 4.
However, Peter Pry just wrote an article here that is an outlier among most of the nuclear war/threat analysts. In it, he states the U.S. strategic forces are at DEFCON 5 and ripe to be destroyed by a Russian first strike.
https://www.realcleardefense.com/.../the_nuclear_911_in...
Pry is a late Cold War warrior, serving in the CIA from 1985-95 as a nuclear plans/threat analyst. He's also been a member of the nuclear verification team post-Cold War. He is currently the executive director of a Congressional advisory task force on homeland security.
Pry is an outlier and represents a minority viewpoint on the current threat of a nuclear attack. There are a few others, most late Cold War warriors who are now retired who believe we are heading toward a collision, but the vast majority of the current analysts and nuclear warfare specialists seem to believe the threat is low, and mainly focused on a Russian use of tactical (Non Strategic Nuclear Weapons) in Ukraine.
Also, as Jon Parshall has pointed out, a Russian first strike would not be able to eliminate our submarine-based warheads, and they would destroy Russia. So, the threat of this seems very, very remote.
The prevailing that counters Pry's, as far as I've found, is best represented by Prof Matthew Kroenig. He is a director at the Atlantic Council and teaches at Georgetown. His bio is here:
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/expert/matthew-kroenig/
His Twitter feed is here:
https://twitter.com/MatthewKroenig
His view is that the threat of nuclear war is low, but if it happens the weapons used will likely be used in Ukraine. That will put the United States and NATO in a position where they must choose how best to respond to this. Kroenig believes the US and the Biden Administration would find a non-nuclear option to respond to such an attack.
That said, Biden announced after the meeting in Brussels that NATO/US would respond "in kind" to a nuclear, chemical or biological attack. The U.S. has no functional chemical weapons anymore--all but about 5% of the stockpile has been destroyed. The remain 5% is scheduled to be destroyed and they're old and non-combat ready. So, we can't respond in kind to a chemical attack. Thus, the position Biden is really talking about using a nuclear weapon in response to a Russian nuclear attack in Ukraine.
Kroenig lays out the most likely possible scenarios in a recent School of War podcast. The challenge as he sees it is this:
Putin uses nuclear rhetoric and brinksmanship to force the West into a choice: Surrender or face Suicide by massive nuclear war because he's willing to use them first. How to counter that strategy is an exceptionally difficult strategic issue, and there are divergent opinions on the best way to proceed.
The podcast can be found here and is really worth a listen:
https://nebulouspodcasts.com/shows/school-of-war
5. A small group of civilians, including engineer Ivan Stepanov and former RISOP analyst David Teter. have been building a new open source RISOP. What is RISOP? Red Integrated Strategic Offensive Plan (RISOP). This is essentially a probable target list in the US in the event of different kinds of retaliatory strikes. There are some old FEMA maps from 1990 and 1996 showing various possible targets in the event of a limited exchange or full exchange. These guys are trying to fill the gap. Teter is a former Cold War-era analyst whose job was to divine probable Russian targets in the even of nuclear war. Ivan grew up next to the Soviet-era nuclear test ranges. Their simulator is here:
https://nuclearwarsimulator.com/
David tweets here:
https://twitter.com/.../status/15028...351300/photo/1
Ivan tweets here:
https://twitter.com/ivnstepanov
6. Lastly, the Biden Administration has assembled a group of policy and security experts to look for ways to respond to a Russian first-use of chemical or nuclear weapons in Ukraine. According to the New York Times, this is called the "Tiger Team" and was designed to arm President Biden with options and discussion points on this front when he meets with the other NATO leaders in Brussels this week. See the article here:
https://www.nytimes.com/.../biden-ru...uclear-weapons...
It is important to note that the administration members interviewed for the article state they have seen nothing from the Russians that merit raising our alert level.

[black50]

Certainly we have some boomers sitting in the waters over there

Apparently not, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/...oogle_vignette

looks like theres only 1 Ohio class near there....but then again, it would probably only take 1 sub to pretty much lay waste to to Russia ...They have 20 ballistic missiles, with each one having "mirv" warheads

[AnthonyS]

So globalist scum want nuclear war so they can enslave everyone via one world gov, banking and digital currency….. Are we supposed to be scared? I’d love to see actual video and photos of all this BS.

[Tx Redneck]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachmen...471892/NWO.mp4

[Gasser64]

Originally Posted by AnthonyS

So globalist scum want nuclear war so they can enslave everyone via one world gov, banking and digital currency….. Are we supposed to be scared? I’d love to see actual video and photos of all this BS.

Hey if you listen to klaus, it certainly doesn't sound good. They appear to have "installed" many top ranking officials in most western governments. Explains why they hated Trump so much. To hear him talk they've got big plans, and that involves depopulation.

[AnthonyS]

Originally Posted by Gasser64

Hey if you listen to klaus, it certainly doesn't sound good. They appear to have "installed" many top ranking officials in most western governments. Explains why they hated Trump so much. To hear him talk they've got big plans, and that involves depopulation.

F that clown and all his cronies.

[68RR]

Monday Ukraine Update:
1. Russian forces northwest of Kyiv pulled some elements back into Balarus over the weekend, indicating that the Ukrainian counter-attack has not effectively surrounded the forces there.
The Russian units NW of Kyiv originally came from units based in the Eastern Military District of Russia. These units, when sent to Belarus earlier in the year for "training" were cherry-picked battalion level formations from a variety of different brigades and divisions. According to one source, Fred Kagan (Critical Threats Director of the American Enterprise Institute), the Russians sent those units to Belarus without command and control headquarters above the battalion level. Additionally, these battalions had never served together. One active duty US logistics officer has written a study on these forces NW of Kyiv and concluded that after the field exercises in February, the units there in Belarus went into combat with about half their normal supply load-out. Additionally, Kagan has pointed out that the Russians had not established many, if any, forward supply bases in Belarus along the border before the invasion.
All of these things help explain the poor performance the Russians have displayed NW of Kyiv.
However, as of about 5 hours ago, reports of renewed Russian attacks in both the NW and Eastern fronts of Kyiv have begun to flow onto the internet. The Russians have brought into these areas a host of new formations--some estimates I've seen say at least 10-15 fresh battalion combat teams of between 500-800 men each.
No details on where exactly these new attacks are taking place on these two fronts, or the results so far.
2. Russians continue to advance, block by block, in Mariupol. A Russian major assigned to a naval infantry unit was killed in the fighting over the weekend. Lots of casualties here. The level of violence, misery and human suffering among the Ukrainians in the city cannot be underestimated. This is one of the worst moments of the 21st Century.
3. No further word on the joint plan Macron was discussing to evacuate civilians from Mariupol via sea.
4. Further heavy fighting around Sumy took place over the weekend. In Kharkiv, Russian bombardment hit a major gas line. The fighting around Kherson was characterized today as "partisan operations" by Ukrainian sources.
5. Several sources report that the Russians and Russian-backed forces in the Donbas launched a series of attacks again over the weekend that were all repelled by Ukrainian defenders.
6. Belarus has not entered the war and sent troops into Ukraine as of Monday morning.
-----------
Strategic:
1. President Biden's last line in his speech in Poland, "For God's sake this man cannot remain in power" has dominated the news cycle for the last few days. I won't go into it except to say there are conflicting reports over whether the line was part of the speech, or ad libbed by the President. The White House and Dept. of State walk back has assured Russia and the world that regime change in Moscow is not a U.S. foreign policy objective.
2. Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia will continue this week.
3. There was an unusual meeting at the Russian Ministry of Defense last week between US officials and several Russian officials, including at least one general. It is hard to figure out what happened here, and the CNN article linked below is vague and contradictory. But the bottom line seems to be the Russian general they met with was in a state of agitation. Whether that is rage against the US, or despair over the situation in Ukraine, or both, is not clear. Read it here:
https://www.cnn.com/.../us-russia-ge...ing/index.html
4, The Russians are pulling units out of many different areas to reinforce their effort in Ukraine. This has destabilized the situation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, where a 2020 war resulted in Russian peacekeepers being deployed and a Russian-brokered peace. More on this later in the week.
Armenia has supplied 4 Su-30 fighter-bombers to the Russians--with Armenian crews--for use against the Ukrainians.
------------
Oryx, which is a team that has been documenting the losses on both sides very closely, has posted what they believe to be Russia's vehicle losses so far. That is photo/slide #1 today. #2 is the Ukrainian casualty estimate for 3/28. Last slide is the UK Ministry of Defense's brief.
Morale: Lots of anecdotal reports on poor Russian morale. There have been many conflicting versions of a fragging incident where Russian troops may have either incapacitated or murdered the colonel in command of their regiment. Reports that Russians have been ordered to shoot deserters are circulating as well. Some stories, which were mentioned in a Pentagon brief last week, indicate some Russian units are dealing with significant numbers of frostbite casualties and do not have the capacity to treat them. Captured Russian field medical supplies have been described as "on par with WWII" medicine. Some reports are speculating that the Russian field hospitals are overwhelmed and cannot keep pace with the casualties. Additionally, CNN reports that getting the bodies of dead Russian soldiers out of Ukraine and back to Russia has become a logistical nightmare, and the corpses are being stored in unrefrigerated facilities. This again is a data point against the stories circulating last month of Russian mobile crematoriums, underscoring the fact that this war is awash in propaganda and rumors, and finding hard news on what is going on is very, very tough.

[68RR]

March 29 - Day 33 - Maybe the start of the end game..except for Donbass
Hi FB!
By far the most important *obvious* development today came after three hours of meetings on a between Ukrainian and Russian delegations on a ceasefire. Most of the issues dividing Kyiv and Moscow on an end to the fighting, according to the Ukrainian delegates talking to media in Istanbul, seem agreed upon. RF delegates were a little more conservative, calling the talks “extremely constructive”. You’ll find a write-up of the details below, because there are a couple of giant issues still outstanding.
The key issues NOT decided, clearly, are (1) whether or not the Russian Federation (RF) should have to pull its forces back into pre-February 24 positions before the agreement goes into effect and (2) particularly, if and when the Russians pull its troops back, does that mean to the western borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions? To the 2014 ceasefire line? To the Donbass-Russia border? Wherever it suits Vladimir Putin? The Ural Mountains?
According to the Ukrainian delegation “Donbass is an issue that will be discussed by the two Presidents.” Meaning, first, no matter how well the talks went, Donbass and its status and borders are not defined. And also meaning, second, that whoever holds what ground in the east of Ukraine now - already militarily important terrain - is now going to be increasingly important from a diplomatic point of view. Modern wars if they are short and even more if they are ended by negotiated ceasefire, pretty much always end in a frenzy of ground-grabbing. If Russia holds the Donbass hard and fast and complete if and when a deal is signed, that will be one thing. If Ukraine has cleared the place of Russian troops, that will definitely be another. So, bottom line here, as the diplomacy ramps up, both sides have real incentives to fight hard and grab ground in Donbass, in coming days.
The Kyiv sector, on the other hand, looks on track to see reduced pressure, which is the most important *not-quite-obvious* development today. No less than the Vice Minister of Defense of Russia announced today that, because of the progress of the talks, the Kremlin has decided to drastically reduce troop presence in the Kyiv and Chernhiv sectors “because talks have now moved to a practical level”. The UAF formally acknowledged the RF was thinning Kyiv sector with its 0600 Tuesday situation report. By evening Kyiv time, CNN was reporting the same thing, and that US intelligence confirmed the RF troops were, in fact, moving north.
Readers of this report series will recognize that Moscow is almost certainly making a virtue of a necessity here, because the UAF already was advancing in this sector, albeit slowly and carefully. Someone or something is now attacking roads leading from Kyiv back to Belarus, which is not good for the RF, and by many accounts several hundred to possibly several thousand RF soldiers are effectively trapped in Gostomel’ and the forests and swamps to the north. Kyiv defense region commander Oleksandr Pavliuk said mopping up of towns near Kyiv was moving forward, that yes RF resistance seemed to be lessening, but it would all take time so could civilians please refrain from driving back to Irpen’ and Bucha for a few days yet, please?
Very careful readers may recall that we predicted this RF move north. Good for us!
This RF-walking-quicky-north situation offers a difficult, but for a change not life-or-death decision to the UAF. If the RF is thinning out its front particularly north of Kyiv, then a time is approaching, or may even have arrived, for the UAF to shift to a major counterattack, and push to cut off and into RF units moving north. The road network supports it and the UAF has a pair of powerful brigades - 14 Mechanized and 25th Airborne - seemingly ideally positioned to make the lunge. If successful, then the RF POW count would almost inevitably spike from a few dozen at a time to hundreds or even more. It would be a real, ground force victory precisely at the time Ukraine and the UAF is negotiating with Russia - there is no better negotiating leverage with the Kremlin than that.
But, the risk is that the RF is capable of organizing a rear guard defense as its people and machines move north, and if it is, the UAF could hand itself a defeat at exactly the wrong time. So far, the UAF has played things conservatively. If we hear of UAF forces pushing towards places like Borodyanka, Ivankiv and (less possibly) Narodychy, that will be a hint that the Ukraine Army General Staff decided to roll some very serious dice.
Fighting in the Kharkiv sector today was still focused on Izium, with exchanges of fire reported at Kamyanka, Sukha Kamyanka and Tykhotske. According to the GCS, near Kharkiv (location not mentioned) a major battle took place. The RF according to the report sent a pick-up force using unis from 1st Tank Army and 200th separate motorized infantry brigade, and over the day more than 1,500 service personnel and 200th brigade’s commander, Colonel Denis KurilIt. I haven’t seen outside sources supporting this claim, but a fight of that scale should generate images and reports over the next 24 hours.
In the Donetsk sector, according to the GCS, RF forces carried out a series of air strikes on the villages Voevodivka, Rubizhne, Lysychansk, Kreminna, Zolote-4, Popasna, Toretsk, and Novhorod. Ground attacks took place over the course of the day gains Popasna and Mariupol - at both locations RF forces suffered losses and failed to gain ground. Mariupol, though surrounded, still holds.
In the Dnipro/Krivoi Rih sector, Oleksandr Vykup, head of the Krivoi Rih regional defense command, said UAF forces in a series of battles on Monday and early Tuesday morning threw back RF armed columns “40-60 kilometers”. The statement if accurate would mean an RF push towards the city kicked off last week had at least returned to starting positions in the vicinity of the villages Bashtanka, Bereznehuvate and Velyka Oleksandrivka. Social media posts and reports from the region seemed to confirm a UAF advance and an RF retreat, but it was not possible to determine with accuracy where battle lines had settled. As with the Kyiv sector, if the report of RF retreat is accurate, then the UAF at least theoretically may have an opportunity to conduct a pursuit, which if it works is really the time to destroy enemy units, because they’re running. If it works.
Mykoaliv saw a missile or perhaps an air bomb slam into a 9-story regional administration building, blowing a hold the size of a swimming pool in the middle. The strike came just as people were going to work, seven dead. Over the course of the day another RF armored column rumbled west from Kherson, duly photographed and placed on social media by Khersonites, to reach UAF positions east of Mykolaiv, where - once again - it turned out the UAF has artillery and knows how to use it. According to one unconfirmed report, a UAF lieutenant at one point had to call fire down on his own positions, before the RF backed off. Images are already surfacing of the trashed RF column. Most likely the hero was from 81st Assault Brigade, a tough formation out of Lviv. Two of today’s images are of the Mykolaiv administration building. Again, seven office workers killed.

[68RR]

continuing:

Other news:
- Mutiny in the Baltic Fleet? According to Roman Tsibaliuk, a Ukrainian reporter usually with excellent sources of information in the RF, in the 9th Regiment and the 18th Naval Infantry Division, in Kaliningrad, 58 contract soldiers quit the service, rather than be sent to Ukraine. According to RF state propaganda, a contract soldier refusing to go where he’s told can be imprisoned for up to 15 years. If true, this is an indicator of how far the rot of the RF’s heavy losses have spread in the Russian army.
- Scraping the bottom of the barrel? - According to military-security analyst Mykola Sungrovsky, the RF might be able to scrape together 5 BTGs’ worth or 5,000 to 7,000 trained soliders, at best, to feed into Ukraine. This would be people on staff assignments, on training duty or in rear area jobs. After that the manpower pipeline is empty. A Luhansk official said that Ukrainian intelligence is tracking several trains carrying “volunteers” from either Dagestan or Chechnya, whose final destination is supposedly Debal’tsevo, where they are supposed to be equipped and sent to the fight. According to Sungrovsky, the equipment pipeline is also running dry and it is very unlikely the RF can find modern tanks and APCs for these latest recruits.
- For some, this war is going to last a lifetime: Ukraine has just preferred chages of war crimes to the commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, Admiral Nikolai Evmenov, for ordering navy cruise missiles fired at, by conservative count, hundreds of Ukrainian homes and businesses. No matter what comes of the peace process (more below), I predict that when the war ends, the hunt for people to blame for the civilian deaths will not, and it won’t stop with Putin. I don’t know Evmenov but I can’t imagine he will ever set food outside Russia again, and he won’t see the inside of a jail cell only if he’s lucky. The war crimes cases from this conflict will outlive most of the people reading this.
The video is of a RF flier named Major Sergei Kosik, who was an high-speed/low drag Su-35 driver, i.e. ground attack jet, until shot down I believe in the Mykolaiv sector. It appears he flew in Syria. The good news is that when he landed the UAF caught up to him before the civilians. Remember the picture of the Mykolaiv administration building? It actually post-dates Kosik’s shoot-down, but it’s still a good image to bear in mind when it comes to his future. He now is in Ukrainian hands and unless exchanged, he will almost certainly go on trial for intentionally bombing civilians. As you can see, the Ukrainian IT people found a propaganda vid (like, the day he was shot down) starring him and his wife: this will probably not help his case in future.
Finally, the Istanbul “peace” conditions, as described by the Ukrainians to media:
- Ukraine gets security guarantees from Great Britain, China, Poland, USA, France, Turkey, Germany, Canada, Italy, Israel similar to NATO Article Five guarantees. If Ukraine is attacked these countries become military allies.
- This guarantee does not hold for LDPR territory or Crimea
- Ukraine becomes neutral, promises not to maintain foreign troops on its soil, not to maintain foreign troop bases on its soil, promises only to train with foreign troops on its soil if the guarantor nations green light it, promises to be non-nuclear, promises not to enter into any military-political alliances
- All signatories commit to supporting Ukrainian entrance into the EU
- Crimea is kicked down the road; Kyiv and Moscow promise to “discuss” Crimea for the next 15 years. Both sides promise not to use military force over Crimea until the 15 years are out.
- Nothing takes effect until the Ukrainian people ratify the treaty agreement in a national referendum
According to the Ukrainians, the RF basically agrees to this, but the questions of where Donbass is and how it should be run, and by whom, are still undecided and the sides are pretty far apart. This would be to be expected, seeing as the RF position is create Little Russia controlled by Russia, and the Ukraine position is all RF troops return to positions held on 23 Feb or earlier. So don’t get your peace firecrackers out just yet…

[quikag]

Appreciate your sending these updates. Fascinating to read!

[68RR]

And, even more craziness!

For weeks, Russian troops have been operating inside the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone without proper protective gear.
Today, reports are circulating that a group of Russian troops who were digging fighting positions in the radioactive dust of the Red Forest have developed acute radiation poisoning. Seven busloads of these soldiers rolled up to a Belarussian hospital earlier today. Not sure how many men that represents.

[68RR]

Today, or more exactly yesterday evening began with a bang. In the Russian Federation village of Krasniy Oktyabr, near the town of Belgorod, about 20 kilometers from the Russia-Ukraine border, there is an ammunition dump. Or, perhaps more precisely, maybe its better to say there WAS an ammunition dump, -because at 20:00 something caused a massive explosion, rattling windows across the border, and throwing a giant fireball into the sky, followed by at least two hours of detonations and fire, before emergency response teams got the blaze under control.
Ukrainian media was quick - like, in less than two hours - to declare it all the work of a Ukraine Armed Forces Tochka-U missile which - and these things are big and slow, they ride on giant trucks - the Ukrainians had managed to get the missile within its 120 kilometer range of the holding facility, and blast it. I posted two images from Russian social media, which, clearly, likes posting pictures of fires and explosions accompanied by vulgar comment, quite as much as their Ukrainian neighbors.
Russian officials led by the local governor seemed to be caught flat-footed. First they said everything was under control, then they said no one was hurt, then they said yes there’s a fire but it’s under control, then they said four service personnel were injured, and ultimately they admitted it took more than five hours to put out the fire, in part because exploding artillery rockets and shells prevented the firemen from getting close enough to put it out.
Later on Wednesday, the Ukraine Army General Staff (AGS) released a cryptic statement: it wasn’t us, probably those Russians mishandled something explosive and possibly beyond expiration date.
Some Ukrainian officials - for example Mykolaiv regional defense commander Vitaly Kim - have claimed that capturing RF ammunition is not as good as it sounds, because much of the RF ammunition dates well back into the Cold War period, and some of it to the Second World War, and either way about a third of it never explodes. Which doesn’t really solve the puzzle of what caused the explosion at Krasnkiy Oktiabr, and all the ammunition that did, somehow, manage to blow itself up.
Kyiv situation part 1: The RF attempts the old football play: Student body left!
The day saw conflicting reports about what force the RF was withdrawing from around Kyiv, where it was going, by what route or routes, and what the Ukrainians were or might be doing about that. The general official view - advanced by for instance the ACS and the Kyiv defense command - was that UAF infantry was mopping up in suburbs just to the north of Kyiv in places like Irpen’ and Brovary, while larger RF formations appeared to be heading back into Belarus, via the town of Ivankiv. Where, readers may recall, the UAF claimed two days ago it had cut a critical bridge. Maybe so, but sources agreed the Russians were moving north, and mostly without hindrance. Eyewitnesses in northern Kyiv reported small arms firing off and on, particularly in the morning. To the west of Kyiv, at about two A.M. - there were no official announcements - the RF put in a rocket artillery strike audible across the most the city. Early on Wednesday (Kyiv time) Pentagon spokesmen were saying the force withdrawal may be just minor, but, by Wednesday afternoon UAF officials, like Presidential advisor Oleksy Arestovych, were stating openly the RF withdrawal had been in progress for 24 hours. Officials of all levels, down to village councils in Vorzel’ and Vyshegorod warned residents who had evacuated earlier to stay away, even if the RF soldiers are departing they are leaving booby traps behind, and in some places the ground is saturated with unexploded shells.
Kyiv situation part 2: What’s next?
For this section I suggest you look at the posted maps on the Kyiv-Chernihiv sector, created by one of the best military cartographers out there, a Twitter user named JominiW. He uses open sources and far more discipline and skill that most normal humans have to cram a massive amount of information into nice, readable situation maps. The one he put out for today shows the situation to the east of Kyiv with some of the best clarity out there, particularly if you read military symbols, which many of you do.
But to get the main point, really all you need to be is not color-blind. In the map, the Ukrainians are green and the Russians are red. If JominiW's estimate is right, and you look immediately to the north-west of Kyhiv, you’ll see several red RF units, and no matter which way the little red RF units turn, it seems like there are green Ukrainian units, at pretty much every direction of the clock.
It’s not a perfect encirclement. But if you look at the road network, the places where the Ukrainians hold a big road junction like in Chernihiv or in Konotop, and think about driving north to Belarus from that part of the world, you are confronted with the question - how exactly to drive north from where the RF is, and get to Belarus, without bumping into some piece of the UAF along the way?
This is probably a big reason why the RF has announced it’s shifting troops away from Kyiv to points east and south. It they stay put where they are, the Ukrainians might cut them off. As the RF has advanced it has lacked the force, please pardon the dreary phrase, to secure its flanks, and now it must pull troops back with all manner of coherent UAF formations in their way.
This is not to say the RF can’t pull its troops out of this sector, but, it is to say that it won’t be easy and the UAF will certainly be looking for opportunities to make it harder for them. This would not be simple to carry out with well-trained, confident troops, and the RF is anything but that. On the other hand, it is probably fair to say that the RF units in north Ukraine down to a man just want to leave the country. Arguably, right now the RF troops in Kyiv sector are as collectively motivated and focused on the mission - get the Hell out of Ukraine - as they have been for the entire war.
Shortly after 1800 Ukraine’s Interior Ministry reporte two columns of RF vehicles, one vicinity Brovary and one vicinity Novy and Stary Basany, had lined up on the road and headed north. 300 vehicles in the first column, 450 in the second, according to the report. It remains to be seen what, if anything, the Ukrainians will do about that. The RF Ministry of Defense announced that “all missions in the Kyiv and Chernihiv area are completed.” Shades of W.
South and East
Compared to yesterday, there were few reports of renewed fighting in either of these sectors. However, as we predicted, confirmation materials - images and eyewitness accounts - appeared over the course of the day confirming the wreck of an RF armored column that, yesterday, left Kherson en route to Mykolaiv but got forced back by artillery. Also, images surfaced of a reported battle with heavy RF losses over the weekend in the vicinity of the town Gulyaipole: it seems the RF indeed lost more combat vehicles there. Further confirmation came today from an RF opposition politician named Ilya Ponamarev, who told independent opposition media that during the battle the RF’s 331st Guards Airborne Regiment - an elite parachute unit - was all but wiped out. I lifted a map from a gentleman named Richard MacKay that shows a possible version of how forces are stacked up in this sector.
Likewise, images came in seemingly confirming that Monday’s engagements in Popasna and Severodonetsk left the UAF holding the positions, and RF tanks and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed or captured at both locations.
From Mariupol, I didn’t see any useful updates at all today.
Other items:
Churn and thrash in British national leadership on the subject of Ukraine - Today a number of Ukrainian politicians said London was on board with the idea of Britain giving Ukraine security guarantees needed for a peace treaty, while Prime Minister Boris Johnson stood up and saying Ukraine needs more and better weapons from the West now. At the same time, a British diplomat at the UN named Tony Radakin (spelling?) saying that while London of course supports Ukraine, extending NATO-type article five protections to Ukraine is something Britain isn’t prepared to do. He did however use the code term “new phase” of Ukraine’s war with Russia, which I think in NATO orgspeak means figuring out ways to get heavy weapons like artillery and vehicle-mounted air defense systems to Kyiv, while tightening down the sanction screws on Russia even more. You watch, a lot of western bureaucrats are going to start using the term “new phase” in coming weeks.
RF hunt for cannon fodder intensifies:
- The “Caucasian” security unit AF intelligence mentioned as heading to Debal’tsevo by train yesterday, has resolved itself, according to the same sources, to “volunteers” from the RF’s 4th military base in Tskhinvali Ossetia (1,200 men), and 7th military base in Abkhazia (800 men). Both of these bases are centers for the Kremlin military footprint in separatist areas it has dug out of Georgia. Neither formation has a reputation for discipline and military professionalism. In this particular case I can speak from personal experience. If either the Ossetians or the Abkhazians get opposite the UAF, it will be very bloody, I fear, and not for the Ukrainians. It would be more like murder.
-

[68RR]

According to Ukrainian military intelligence, the RF high command is grappling with something like a mutiny in 26th Tank Regiment of 47th Tank Division where, per Kremlin procedure, draftees were lined up and told to sign contracts and become professional soldiers, and go to Ukraine. Sending untrained draftees into combat is political dynamite in Russia, if it took place massively and word of it were to get back to the Russians, Putin could faced serious public unrest, and if there were mass casualties - and new draftees by definition are poorly trained - then that is the kind of thing historically that has led to Tsars getting put on trains to Siberia.
- Speaking of Siberia, an audio appeared of an irate police general in Novosibirsk who is apoplectic that his subordinates prefer to quit the special forces police, and get a black “coward” mark in their copy books, than volunteer to go to Ukraine. He even calls them woman and traitors. Unfortunately for him he didn’t collect telephones prior to his tirade, so now his fuming and foul language is in the internet, and no doubt he is wondering which of his insubordinate lieutenants dared to record him secretly.
Kyiv wants to go back to normal, even if it costs: Kyiv Mayor Vitaly Klitschko today announced that basically all street and sidewalk businesses like cafes and restaurants and so forth “for the duration” will no longer have to pay the city rent on space, just please get back to work and start serving customers. If the establishment wants to put up patriotic signage, the city will help with materials and maybe even cash.

[Strychnine]

Originally Posted by 68RR

draftees were lined up and told to sign contracts and become professional soldiers, and go to Ukraine. Sending untrained draftees into combat...

Jeez, it's only been 6 weeks, wtf is actually going on in Russia?

[Labora]

Originally Posted by Strychnine

Jeez, it's only been 6 weeks, wtf is actually going on in Russia?

The more news that comes out it sounds like they where grossly unprepared and basically lied to about what this was going to actually be. Almost sounds like they expected Ukraine to just roll over and give up as they are struggling to do anything long term and logistically are a mess.

[AnthonyS]

We just finished fighting a 20+ year war in crapmanistan to replace the Taliban with the Taliban/ISIS.

You guys are silly if you think anyone wants to accomplish anything quickly anymore. We are in a very long unrestricted information war. If you are falling for most of this, you are losing.

We could all get organized and put an end to all this senseless BS, but most of you are too worried about Will Smith and the Oscar’s……. Distraction by design.

[68RR]

Latest evening update(UK time) from Stefan Korshak
John R Bruning
Shane Glasspool Tony Dukes William Tracy
Roy's notes: at the risk of making this a comedy of errors,Stefan outlines the front line risk of infanteers/anti tankers.
If your going to be the sharp edge of the pointy blade,you better get digging!.
Chatham Arch for anyone?
If you know,you know!!
April 2 - Day 38 - The Battle of Mala Rogan’: Bush league vs. Pros
Hi FB!
Two visuals for you today. The man with the duck, well, you have to understand Russian, but if you do then you’ll understand why it really was important to share the video.
The second video comes with warnings.
WARNING: The attached video contains an image of a corpse. Maybe two. You are warned. Also it’s fairly long, 20 minutes. You are warned about that as well. The video is not in English, although the voice-over is less important than the images. But at least you were warned about that too.
I’ll start out with the most useful fact of the day: according to Ukraine’s Finance Ministry, the war with Russia is costing Ukraine about $10 billion (USD) a month. Roughly speaking, that’s very close to what the US paid, per month, to fight in Afghanistan.
Today the RF chose to spread its long-range missiles and air bombings around. Overnight strikes hit in Odessa region (three cruise missiles, one shot down, target not reported), Poltava region (four missiles, target not reported but homes and businesses hit, according to an afternoon report two missiles shot down), Kremenchug town (three air strikes and an artillery strike, homes and businesses hit), near the village Shepetovka, outside Kmelnitsky city, (no info but social media images showing a giant smoke plume and fire often associated with a burning fuel storage site) and Dnipro (two missiles hitting a production facility). During the day RF missiles struck, for the first time, the city Pavlograd.
The Belarusian news platform Belaruskiy Raion reported the launch of a total sixteen or more RF long-range missiles from the Baranovichi and Mozyrsky regions from 22:00 to midnight on Thursday. It was not clear where these weapons struck, but it was clear that someone in independent Ukrainian media wants the Ukrainians to know when missiles are coming, and from where.
Donbass:
Aside from overnight and morning reports, this is the center of the fighting right now, and Izium still appears to be the epicenter. Ukraine’s usually stolid and consistent Army General Staff (AGS), in its 06:00 sitrep reversed its status on Izium from yesterday, declaring that actually, the UAF still controls part Mariupol (yesterday reported lost) BUT the RF has taking the Severny Donets River crossing in the city and is moving men and equipment south via a pontoon bridge. The UAF is battling hard to stop the RF push south on Izium’s outskirts, with defenses centered on the village Kamianka. Absence of updates over Friday make me suspect a severe battle is still in progress there.
Certainly, there was very heavy fighting in Luhansk and Doentsk regions on Thursday. According to the AGS, on Thursday, UAF forces operating in Donetsk and Luhansk regions repulsed nine RF attacks, destroying eight tanks, 44 infantry fighting vehicles, 16 trucks and 10 artillery systems. If the AGS estimates are accurate, RF forces attacking in Donbas could reach critical loss levels in a week or less, but, the critical loss point for UAF forces in sector could come sooner.
Other locations in this sector still under heavy pressure were, as before, Popasna, Severodonetsk and Ruzhezhne. Serhiy Hadai, head of the Luhansk regional defense command, in a statement that at these locations heavy “positional fighting” was taking place, with UAF units in defensive positions are constantly exchanging fire with RF units opposite them. He claimed Ukrainian units were holding their ground and inflicting more than 100 casualties on their opponents every day.
Haidai claimed that the RF attackers were largely elements of the DLPR 2nd Army Corps - a composite unit manned by RF officers and a mix of long-term soldiers drawn from occupied territories in the Luhansk region, and recent conscripts from the area, including students. There are also recent “Kadyrov” troops operating with 2nd Corps, he said, more than 30 of which were hit in overnight fighting and sent to hospital in Alchevsk.
UAF and Ukraine government officials said that they expect severe battles in Donbass in coming days, as the RF shifts troops from the north of Kyiv and Chernihiv and Kharkiv sectors, to reinforce its attacks in Donbas.
I have reliable information (actually, more than that) that the UAF is also shifting troops to the sector. My guess is these battles will get bigger.
Kyiv and Chernihiv:
In the Kyiv sector I didn’t see any reports of UAF troops moving further north than Ivankiv but, never short on quotable material, Presidential advisor Oleksy Arestovych told reporters today he expects the north of Kyiv to be cleared to the Belarusian border in as soon 48 hours. That may be, but, so far the RF evacuation of the Kyiv sector seems to have netted the UAF abandoned vehicles but few if any prisoners.
It in the suburbs near Kyiv, the UAF was still taking its time, going house to house and clearing corpses, booby traps and possible hiding places for RF stay-behind infantry.
Regarding corpses, I’m not kidding. In Bucha especially, shocking video is emerging with what appear to be dozens of dead Ukrainian civilians, some with their hands tied, lying in streets or courtyards. I think it’s best to wait for harder information before making any conclusions.
There were no reports, anywhere in Kyiv sector today, of UAF forces moving north contacting any kind of RF rear guard. The UAF rolled into the Chernobyl containment facility, ran up the Ukrainian flag, and no doubt left the site and its radiation as quickly as they good to the engineers that work there. In Brovary town official announced 36 hours of martial law, meaning everyone stays in their homes while the troops hunt the streets for marauders and saboteurs.
In Chernihiv sector the UAF reported recovery/liberation of these villages - Ягодное, Ивановка, Золотинка, Шестовица, Лукашевка, Слобода - which in practical terms means that, once they are cleared for mines and unexploded munitions and corpses and booby traps - the Kyiv-Chernihiv highway will be open and the siege of Chernihiv will formally be over, a statement from the Chernihiv regional command said.
However, a “large group” of RF forces are still deployed to the north of the city, the statement said, although it’s not clear whether the intend to defend where they are or go back to Belarus. The report said these RF forces are centered on the villages Sen’kovka and Horodnya.
In the south, there appeared to be little movement with RF probes towards Gulyaipole, Zaporizhia and Kam’yanske that, according to the Zaporizhia defense command, reduced the RF equipment inventory by one tank, six armored personnel carriers, three trucks and four rocket artillery systems. Also, the RF appeared to again be attempting to occupy the much-hit Chernobaevka airfield by Kherson: the UAF hit it again.

[68RR]

International:
The big news is is that today the heavy hitters in the support Ukraine club Kyiv is going to get heavy weapons.
The British (as reported by The Times) promised to deliver artillery including the AS90 Braveheart howitzer, as well as shells and armored vehicles. These are the exact big guns the Ukrainians have been begging for. According to the Times report, Poland and the Baltic states already operate the AS90, and it’s likely the Ukrainian gunners will be trained on the system there. If and when fielded, this will mark the first time Ukraine - again, at war for eight years - actually will have howitzer firing 155mm NATO standard shells. This is a big deal not just politically, but from the munitions point of view: Ukraine badly needs more laser-guided munitions, and the RF has destroyed Ukraine’s own factories capable of making such shells. A weapon firing 155mm laser-guided munitions, obviously, is not at much risk of having the factory making its shells bombed by the Russians.
The Americans, for their part, put out a press release detailed the latest batch of arms and materials they’re sending Ukraine, worth in total $USD 300 million. Along with the Switchblade kamikaze drones that have been on the “they’re coming” list already for two weeks, the statement said, Uncle Sam is sending two kinds of military drones, “armored vehicles” which almost certainly means HUMMVs or MRAPs left over from Afghanistan, small arms ammunition, and “laser-guided rockets”. None of this stuff is heavy weapons, all of it can easily be delivered by aircraft.
More importantly, the Gray Lady (New York Times to you non news people) reported today that the Biden administration “will work with” NATO states to help get Ukraine tanks. The article doesn’t say what tanks and from whom, but the obvious candidate is Poland. Discussion on that some other time.
Non-duck video and its details
The video I’ve attached was produced by Yury Butusov, one of Ukraine’s leading journalists. He runs the censor.net.ua news website and has a long history of excellent sources in the military.
On 28 February Butusov posted a video of him walking along the crest of a hill overlooking the Kharkiv region village Mala Rogan’. As some of you will recall, a little less than a week ago this was a place where RF forces were dug in and preventing the UAF from moving supplies in and people out of Kharkiv. In other words, the RF forces on the crest were part of the Kharkiv “encirclement”. After a battle elements of the 92nd Mech Brigade threw the RF forces off the crest. According to Butusov, elements of the RF 59th Tank Regiment and 136th Motor Rifle Brigade were the defenders.
The video is very simple - Butusov walks the two kilometer length of the position, with a video recording, and shows and describes what he sees. It is not often one gets a close look at a defensive position after a battle. This is by far the most detailed look, made public, of a defensive position during this war.
I’ll go into details I spotted in the next several paragraphs, but, short version, if you want conclusive, hard, unarguable evidence at least some units in the RF army are poorly-led and badly disciplined, you need look no further than this video. Likewise, if you want to see an example of how disastrous it can be when a poorly-led unit with pretty good equipment, gets attacked by a well-led, motivated unit with average equipment.
- The RF occupied this position on 26-27 February, i.e., it was in place for a month. In that time, a competent unit would have built full-dress bunkers, multiple firing positions, multiple firing sites for the tanks, and hide positions for all other major equipment and communication trenches. Failure to dig in seriously when the other guy has lots of artillery, is suicide for infantry. At about 03:30 and 09:00 you can see infantry hides they dug: the roof is perhaps two layers of sandbags, and they are well above the level of ground. Against medium never mind heavy artillery, this kind of flimsy protection is a joke and a death trap.
- It is clear from the video that the terrain chosen by the Russians very typical for east Ukraine: the top of a rolling hill where farmers had planted a line of brush and low trees to divide fields. The RF simply set up in the brush, dug in a couple of firing positions for the tanks, and did little else. This gave them a little bit more concealment that being out in the middle of a field, but, a professional defender would have dug his infantry in on a reverse slope, with machine gun, observation and firing positions on the crest itself. The defense set up here is either amateur, or ignorant. Instead, there are shallow holes out in the open, a couple with tripods.
- Cut branches, smashed tree limbs, destroyed equipment scattered across the position, plus meter-diameter and bigger along the length of this position make it extremely likely that prior to putting in a ground attack the Ukrainians plastered the entire length of the wood line with either 122mm howitzers or 152mm howitzers, or both, and if I had to guess it was 152s. There is evidence of heavy shell splinters up and down the position. It’s hard to imagine how anything above ground could have lived under that barrage, and as noted above, the RF soldiers seem to have done practically nothing to get themselves below ground: for an entire month.
- Over the course of the video, according to Butusov, he walks past some 30 destroyed RF armoreed vehicles, of which 4 were tanks. We don’t know what other vehicles exited the position, but the ones that were destroyed im place mean one of three things: (1) when the UAF artillery came down it was so quick and so heavy, that 30 or so armored vehicles - which are, inherently, supposed to resist artillery - were put out of action almost instantly or (2) when the artillery came in, the crews just abandoned the vehicles and ran or (3) when the artillery came in, the crews couldn’t think of anything better to do than leave the vehicles to be pounded into destruction. Freezing under artillery fire is a common reaction among untrained troops, but is unpardonable in a military with pretensions with professionalism.
- Expended rounds and a pair of prepared firing positions for the tanks make it likely that the entire defensive scheme for this RF position was, the tanks would shoot at anything coming towards the hill, or moving on the road below it. Tanks are far too expensive to live stationary like a bunker on tracks. If they are threatened, their crews need to move them or their commander needs to tell them to move. That didn’t happen here.
- There are other details, but it becomes repetitive. I’m not saying this video is a window onto all engagements taking place in this war, but, it is conclusive evidence that, at least sometimes, the RF on a tactical level is shockingly amateur. The defensive errors this video shows would be unpardonable, even in bad US National Guard unit. For a unit in a shooting war for a month, the errors are criminally negligent and there is no doubt whatsoever in my mind that that negligence got somewhere between a few and several dozen of young Russian soldiers killed.
- Looking at how the RF defended this hill above Mala Rogan’, from a UAF point of view - never forget the UAF has been at war eight years - it is just mystifying and even a little funny that there are people out there who call themselves experts, that say Ukraine has no chance against the RF.

[Gasser64]

Here's the reason:

[Trip McNeely]

Question…. Why did Zelensky video a statement and announce a Grammy winner for the show on Sunday night? Does this not strike anyone as extremely odd as they are in the middle of a “war?” WTF