Some info from the Ukraine

[68RR]

"Stalin’s policies that autumn led inexorably to famine all across the grain- growing regions of the USSR. But in November and December 1932 he twisted the knife further in Ukraine, deliberately creating a deeper crisis.
Step by step, using bureaucratic language and dull legal terminology, the Soviet leadership, aided by their cowed Ukrainian counterparts, launched a famine within the famine, a disaster specifically targeted at Ukraine and Ukrainians.
Several sets of directives that autumn, on requisitions, blacklisted farms and villages, border controls and the end of Ukrainization— along with an information blockade and extraordinary searches, designed to remove everything edible from the homes of millions of peasants— created the famine now remembered as the Holodomor.
The Holodomor, in turn, delivered the predictable result: the Ukrainian national movement disappeared completely from Soviet politics and public life. The “cruel lesson of 1919” had been learned, and Stalin intended never to repeat it."
~ Anne Applebaum, "Red Famine: Stalin's War on Ukraine"

[68RR]

Some interesting comments on a post:

Peter Fey
Any no fly zone means taking out the Russian IADs, which obtw can shoot down planes at range from the confines of Russian territory. The range rings of SA-20 and 21s are impressive. So anyone advocating for that doesn't know what the hell they're talking about.

Reply13h
John R Bruning
Peter Fey An S400 shot down Ukraine's premier demonstration pilot over the weekend--from 150 kilometers away. The launcher wasn't even in Ukrainian territory. Peter, your expertise here is most welcome, thank you.

Reply13h
Peter Fey
John R Bruning and unfortunately that's not even max range... as horrific as this is, open conflict between NATO and Russia would be a lot worse. That's what a NFZ is.
Reply12h

John R Bruning
Peter Fey It astounds me that these people in the foreign policy establishment fail to recognize this. Insane.
Reply12h
William Tracy
Peter Fey Do you believe that even a very narrow no fly zone strictly on the western border between Ukraine, Poland and Romania be considered provocative by Russia?
Reply7h
Peter Fey
William Tracy Putin has already stated that. And those SAM ranges extend over all of Ukraine. If a system was in Kaliningrad, it would be capable of shooting down planes damn near in Germany. Any NFZ involves killing those systems, and direct conflict with Russia.
Reply56m

[68RR]

Corey C. Jordan
Israel may be the key to ending this war. Israel is offering to broker a peace. Putin accepted a request for an in-person meeting. In the meantime, I would not be so sure that Putin will push towards a full blown conflict for multiple reasons. One of those reasons is his support among his military seems to be eroding. Someone in the high command has been tipping off the Ukraine leadership about assassination plans on Zelensky and military ops. That helo special op was met by a large Ukraine force, and it wasn't a lucky guess. It seems that Ukraine is getting help from someone at the very top in Putin's circle. Before nukes start flying, I expect Putin will be deposed or assassinated. Remember 1991 and the army that refused to fight the people, turning their guns onto the Polit Bureau. NATO doesn't need a no fly zone, and talk of one is simply stupidity. Some have speculated that a large portion of Russian T-90 tanks are inoperable. Poor maintenance and a lack of spare parts to blame. They have already lost between 15 and 20 percent of the forces committed. That loss rate is not sustainable. Their inability to control the air, with the Ukrainian air force growing, while Russia's suffers serious attrition is significant. Turkey is resupplying drones and adding to their number. Turkey had large investments in Ukraine, and they are unhappy.

[68RR]

Corey C. Jordan
One other point that I consider telling... Recall the Iran-Iraq war. Hussein's forces were equipped with latest Soviet export weapons, aircraft and air-defense systems. Soviet advisors trained his army and air force. Their command structure was Soviet. Like the Russian army of today, the bulk of the Iraqi army were disinterested, unmotivated conscripts. They were thought to be regional juggernaut. Yet, they could not defeat the smaller, poorly equipped Iranians, who had little support from the West. Nothing has truly changed within that Soviet system. Let's take a look at the 3 month Soviet-Finnish war. Four huge Soviet armies invaded Finland, backed by a very large air force. Stalin's generals elected to attack in winter, when the ground was frozen, to best utilize their vast supremacy in armor. Though exhausted and near the end of their rope, the Finn's butchered the Soviets. Using hit and run tactics and only fighting fixed battles when necessary, produced 370,000 Soviet casualties. Finland suffered 70,000, half of which were civilians. This war ended in a negotiated peace, as Stalin was embarrassed and was aware that this war was displaying his military's weaknesses to Hitler, who, with his general staff, was paying close attention. Finland lost some territory, but survived. Stalin pushed the Finn's into an alliance with Nazi Germany, a byproduct he didn't want or expect. There are many parallels to drawn with the current war in Ukraine. It seems that Putin learned nothing from history. If he is as smart as some think he is, he will also negotiate a peace. Yet, he will also face long term consequences, that he cannot predict. If he fails to negotiate, he will have badly depleted his military hardware, and like Stalin, signalled Russia's weaknesses to rivals, such as China.

[68RR]

John R Bruning
Day fourteen - March 9 - Putin gives up on the UAF, rolls blackmail dice with the West, civilian lives
For todays’ review, I suggest a detour to southern Poland. There you will find, I think, two brigades of the US’ 101st Airborne Division (Screaming Eagles) and one brigade of the US’ 82nd Airborne Division (All American). They are in south-east Europe, instead of stateside, because smart people in Washington decided a good way to send Vladimir Putin a message, would be to park a full division equivalent of some of the best-armed, best-trained infantry in the world, on Nato’s eastern flank.
They call themselves "America's Best". They are fit, they are well-led, and if you give them a mission, any mission, they will do the job or die trying. These are units with history: they jumped into Normandy, they stuck it to the panzers at Bastogne, and they liberated one of Hitler’s death camps. Right now they are training, and waiting, and sneaking some Polish beer when the Sergeant Major isn’t watching, and training some more.
One country away, in Ukraine, there is not training but a real war. But on the fourteenth day of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, it’s not much of a conventional war any more. Which makes me wonder what the American Airborne troopers only a few hundred km away, think about it.
Along the northern front fighting is continuing. It seems clear that the Ukrainians are holding, and at the point of greatest Russian Federation (RF) pressure, today, according to the Ukrainian Army General staff, a new RF push towards the village Irpen’ was turned back with heavy losses. It seems clear at least that the Ukrainians intend to fight on that line: today the mayor of Irpen’ was out and about, helping citizens evacuate so, effectively, their homes might be come fortifications or just be cleared for better fields of fire. He didn’t actually say that was what is going to happen, but once the civilians are gone, in a conventional war, civilian property gets trashed pretty quickly.
I really didn’t see any reports at all of movements or battles in the south and the east. The impression is that, aside from efforts towards Kyiv and Kharkiv, the RF ground forces are settling back on their haunches. Whether this is because the RF has figured out that attacking into the teeth of Ukrainian defenses is dangerous, or because the RF is running out of combat-capable units, is debatable. In any case, for the first time since the second day of the war, the Ukrainians did NOT estimate they killed close to or more than 1000 RF soldiers in the day’s fighting. I think that is a pretty good indicator, that relatively speaking, the direct fire shooting is dropping off dramatically.
Which you cannot say about indirect fires. Here's a compilation of what towns and villages were hit, and with what, over the last 24 hours, as I read the media:
Hammered with artillery - Village Lebedin, Sumy region; Hammered with artillery and air strikes - Kharkov (three districts); ground zero for an Iksander missile strike and a Tochka-U missile strike - Kramatorsk (Note: Pictures courtesy the local Territorial Guards show the Tochka did not blow up but grounded itself pretty much intact in a forest) ; Mykolaiv - shelled, hit with Smerch rockets. An air strike hit Zhytomyr’s heating plant. In Irpen’ and Izium there were reports, and in one case a video, of RF infantry opening fire on civilian vehicles, and even pedestrians.
The RF saved the worst for Mariupol where, as nearly as I can see, at least two air bombs weighing at least ton each left the center of the city devastated, particularly a children’s hospital. Seventeen child patients were injured. One other bomb left a crater 6-7 meters deep. The bombing took place during a ceasefire agreed upon the day previous. On state Russian TV, the announcers said the school bombing was faked. In the back of every one else's minds, is the unpleasant thought: probably, the West's leaders would prefer not to go to the trouble of holding Vladimir Putin accountable.
One battlefield conclusion is pretty obvious: the UAF’s ability to protect the entire country’s skies is degraded enough, that the Russian air force can pretty safely fly into Ukraine and drop bombs on big targets like cities, and unless they get lucky there’s not much the Ukrainians can do about it. Of course, it’s not likely the Ukrainians would use their air defense missiles first to protect cities from air attack, because who in the 21st century just bombs cities to kill civilians?
But there is a greater strategic conclusion we can make. Here, we see clearly, the focus of the RF’s overall effort has shifted. No longer is the RF trying to win on the battlefield, or to do a regime change by murdering Zelenskyy or parachuting into the Maidan square. The main RF strategy, as far as I can see, is simple and brutal: kill or injure Ukrainian civilians, and do it so long and intensely that someone - the Ukrainian government, the wobbling West, the Vatican, whomever - forces the Ukrainians to give the Russians what they want, effectively so the West can stop having to see horrific images on their televisions and smart phones.
Putin’s calculation is that the Western public will throw Ukraine under the bus, because confronting Putin is scary and the images of the bad things he’s doing are most easily dealt with by giving him what he wants. However, for that to happen the Ukrainians have to want to stop fighting, and as noted above it’s looking less and less likely the RF can beat the Ukrainians on the battlefield. Every time an RF bomb or shell kills a Ukrainian child, that’s a whole bunch of Ukrainians even more unwilling to compromise.
Which brings me back to the 101st and the 82nd in Poland. Here you have a battle-ready force of some of the toughest soldiers around, and they are back by far by the biggest and most capable military around. Moreover, the Poles alone have something like six combat brigades just on the east flank, as I recall. I did a recent count: Nato has concentrated close to 150 combat aircraft in Poland, Romania and the Baltics, and it’s the whole schmear: F-15Cs, F-35s, Tornadoes, Eurofighters, and all manner of Vipers.
All of this force is about a two hour’s flight by C5/C-130, and a lot less by fighter, to places where the Russian Federation is using air and ground forces to target and kill civilians, Ukrainian men, women and children.
No one believes Putin is going to attack Nato. Putin is betting the US and Nato will do nothing to stop him from murdering civilians in Ukraine.
A credo of the infantry is that you sacrifice for the greater good. I bet, there are plenty of American infantrymen in Poland right now, wondering what the Hell they’re doing sitting there, when innocent women and children are being bombed and killed so close by?
If stopping a crime like that isn’t a risk worth taking, or a sacrifice worth making - then they have to be asking: what is?

[68RR]

Well, it's getting stupid now!

Evening Update:
1. Russian MoD spokesman, a major general, stated at a press conference today the the United States has plans to send weaponized birds from Ukraine to Russia to initiate a bioweapons attack. No details on what kind of birds are in US government employ.
https://twitter.com/remilitari/statu...12187627433986...
2. The Russians have asked for a special meeting of the UN Security Council to present evidence they say will show US bioweapon labs have been operating in Ukraine. It is uncanny how similar these threats and allegations are to the ones the Russians orchestrated during the 1950-53 Korean War.
3. China has refused to offer spare parts to Russia's airline companies for their Boeing and Airbus aircraft. Two-thirds of Russian airliners (332 airplanes) are either Boeing made or Airbus made. Both Western companies have withdrawn all support for these Russian-operated aircraft, which will essentially ground almost 70% of Russian commercial aviation soon.
4. The nuclear reactor in the Kharkiv Institute of Physics and Technology has gone off line after a series of Russian artillery attacks targeted the facility. The Ukrainians are calling this an "act of nuclear terrorism."
5. The Russians made slow but stead progress toward Kyiv today, including to the west. Antonov airport is in their hands now, and the Ukrainians blew up the fuel storage depot there to deny it to the Russians. The 40 mile long convoy is now largely dispersed.
6. The Russians are in a strategic and political box, totally trapped by their own decision to invade and their own military's inability to secure a swift victory. The longer this goes on, the more likely escalation will take place. Take a look at Christopher Chivvis' analysis of Russia's options and the likelihood this could turn into a transformational nuclear event.
https://www.theguardian.com/.../russia-ukraine-war...
7. Former Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev went on MSNBC today and concluded that Putin's advisors are flat-out lying to him about the situation in Ukraine. "They'll overthrow him before telling him the truth" was his conclusion. See the interview here:
https://twitter.com/AriMelber/status...65189616476163...
8. Ukraine and Russia's foreign ministers met in Turkey to negotiate. Nothing substantive came out of those talks.
9. Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has traveled to Moscow to meet with Putin and discuss peace options informally. Schroeder has close ties to Russia and Russian energy businesses, and his refusal to resign from several board positions trigger a mass resignation of his staff. The current German chancellor has distanced himself from Schroeder in the recent days, so it is not exactly clear on whose authority, and for whom he speaks, while in Moscow.
10. In terms of how the Russian population will react to the sanctions and the destruction of their economy, there's not a lot of evidence that they will do anything other than retrench and blame the West and not their own government. In terms of getting the truth to the Russian people as to what is going on, I'll leave you with this series of intercepted cell phone conversations between Russian soldiers and their loved ones back home that Senator Rubio posted. This is the enemy Ukraine is facing.
https://twitter.com/maxtosc.../statu...51026784493581...

[scootro]

Originally Posted by 68RR

Well, it's getting stupid now!

Evening Update:
1. Russian MoD spokesman, a major general, stated at a press conference today the the United States has plans to send weaponized birds from Ukraine to Russia to initiate a bioweapons attack. No details on what kind of birds are in US government employ.
https://twitter.com/remilitari/statu...12187627433986...
2. The Russians have asked for a special meeting of the UN Security Council to present evidence they say will show US bioweapon labs have been operating in Ukraine. It is uncanny how similar these threats and allegations are to the ones the Russians orchestrated during the 1950-53 Korean War.
3. China has refused to offer spare parts to Russia's airline companies for their Boeing and Airbus aircraft. Two-thirds of Russian airliners (332 airplanes) are either Boeing made or Airbus made. Both Western companies have withdrawn all support for these Russian-operated aircraft, which will essentially ground almost 70% of Russian commercial aviation soon.
4. The nuclear reactor in the Kharkiv Institute of Physics and Technology has gone off line after a series of Russian artillery attacks targeted the facility. The Ukrainians are calling this an "act of nuclear terrorism."
5. The Russians made slow but stead progress toward Kyiv today, including to the west. Antonov airport is in their hands now, and the Ukrainians blew up the fuel storage depot there to deny it to the Russians. The 40 mile long convoy is now largely dispersed.
6. The Russians are in a strategic and political box, totally trapped by their own decision to invade and their own military's inability to secure a swift victory. The longer this goes on, the more likely escalation will take place. Take a look at Christopher Chivvis' analysis of Russia's options and the likelihood this could turn into a transformational nuclear event.
https://www.theguardian.com/.../russia-ukraine-war...
7. Former Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev went on MSNBC today and concluded that Putin's advisors are flat-out lying to him about the situation in Ukraine. "They'll overthrow him before telling him the truth" was his conclusion. See the interview here:
https://twitter.com/AriMelber/status...65189616476163...
8. Ukraine and Russia's foreign ministers met in Turkey to negotiate. Nothing substantive came out of those talks.
9. Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has traveled to Moscow to meet with Putin and discuss peace options informally. Schroeder has close ties to Russia and Russian energy businesses, and his refusal to resign from several board positions trigger a mass resignation of his staff. The current German chancellor has distanced himself from Schroeder in the recent days, so it is not exactly clear on whose authority, and for whom he speaks, while in Moscow.
10. In terms of how the Russian population will react to the sanctions and the destruction of their economy, there's not a lot of evidence that they will do anything other than retrench and blame the West and not their own government. In terms of getting the truth to the Russian people as to what is going on, I'll leave you with this series of intercepted cell phone conversations between Russian soldiers and their loved ones back home that Senator Rubio posted. This is the enemy Ukraine is facing.
https://twitter.com/maxtosc.../statu...51026784493581...

US bioweapon labs have been operating in Ukraine? WTF

[BLAKE]

Originally Posted by scootro

US bioweapon labs have been operating in Ukraine? WTF

That makes no damn sense.

[bubbaearl]

china's 100 year plan .

ever wonder why obama gave Ukraine that billion dollars ?

[AnthonyS]

Originally Posted by BLAKE

That makes no damn sense.

Oliver Stone made a documentary about Ukraine that you should watch. Know that google, stupidbook and twatter are blocking it. You'll have to find it elsewhere (cough rumble). Then watch the testimony that someone from the state dept gave in Congress this week. She was also in the documentary referenced above. Then figure out what else Burisma was involved in besides gas and oil. All the dots are out there if you aren't stuck on normal MSM.

[Tx Redneck]

http://www.igorsushko.com/

[68RR]

Latest from John:

Monday Morning Update:
Ukraine:
1. For the last 3 days, there have been little to no offensive operations northwest and west of Kyiv. The Russians are likely trying to square away their logistics mess.
2, There were no offensive operations northeast of Kyiv either during the same period. Again, the Russians seem to be concentrating on securing their lines of communications.
3. Limited attacks took place around Mariupol that succeeded in capturing a few villages.
4. The Russians killed 35 in a long-range missile attack on a Ukrainian training base near the Polish border. I've seen reports that stated this facility was being used as a conduit for Western aid, as well as a training base for some 1,000 international volunteers.
5. Putin has reportedly asked the Chinese for military equipment. This makes sense as the Russians have lost close to 2,500 vehicles of all kinds since the war started, plus an estimated 170 drones, helicopters and fixed wing aircraft.
6. Ukrainians are estimating the Russians have lost over 12,000 men. The Open Source Intelligence community has flooded the net over the last 48 hours with photos of Russian soldiers killed in action in Ukraine, complete with biographical sketches. In a few cases, they are also posting photos of the funeral services back in their hometowns, which suggests the mobile crematorium stories were overblown.
7. A Russian convoy was reportedly destroyed outside of Melitopol in the southeastern part of Ukraine, apparently by a combined artillery bombardment and surprise ground assault that surrounded it. Ukrainians are claiming 200 vehicles destroyed.
8. Russian heavy bombers were employed in launching high-altitude attacks on Ukrainian cities last night.
9. Russians are now moving ammunition and supplies forward in marked ambulances. The Ukrainians have been finding them abandoned, full of weapons & ammo. Flip side: Ukrainians are moving Western aid in civilian vehicles. Both sides are shooting at these vehicles now.
10. Civilian protests erupted in several captured Ukrainian cities, including Kherson and Melitopol. In some cases, unarmed civilians confronted Russian soldiers and armored vehicles, often carrying Ukrainian flags.
11. Putin has reportedly sacked 8 generals. Russian news reports and interviews with officials now admit the "special military action" has not gone according to their timetable.
12. Russian attacks on civilian targets in Mariupol have killed 2,500 civilians according to Ukrainian sources.
13. Most analysts I've been reading have concluded that a revolution or coup in Russian is virtually impossible. A few believe Putin's grip on power is slipping, but the majority believe the chances of either a coup or popular uprising are slim.
14. Open Source Intelligence groups have discovered sat imagery that shows electronic interference from ground radar systems used by Ukrainian, US and NATO surface to air missile batteries. This was used by one Israeli analyst to document the locations of US Patriot missile batteries throughout the Middle East. Others have been watching the Ukrainian SAM radar systems as well as the recently deployed Patriot systems in Poland.
More later today.

[BLAKE]

Thanks for continuing to post these updates.

[Rick Modena]

Yes, Thank you. I do not watch the local news or International shit like CNN because of all the lies and same shots of shit over and over again.

[bird_dog0347]

agreed, thanks for continuing to do this.

[68RR]

Just trying to keep you guys informed from a good source. Here's more:

I’ll start today’s review with Ukraine’s hybrid war counter-offensive against Russia.
Today the Interfax news agency Ukraine Armed Forces (UAF) along with the SBU ran another press conference with Russian Federation (RF) prisoners of war. There were six of them, and to a man they said they had been well-treated, fed well, received medical care, that they were angry at Vladimir Putin for sending them to invade Ukraine to destroy Nazis that weren’t there, that the Ukrainian people are peaceful, and that the war needs to stop now. All said they were very sorry - albeit several said that they only found out they were invading Ukraine once they started seeing Ukrainian signs, during what they thought was a training exercise. This was, to my count, the third such POW presser in two weeks of war. Plenty of foreign reporters.
This is what countering a false narrative effectively looks like. During Georgia, Crimea and Donbass - and I was there for two of those - the RF very successfully muddied the waters so that those who wanted an excuse not to call the RF an aggressor, could. That in turn weakened sanctions and, in hindsight, emboldened the Kremlin to attack someone else later, using the same tactics. The Ukrainians however clearly have done their homework, and understand it is difficult to claim you are, for instance, killing Nazis to the applause of a friendly neighbor nation, when your own soldiers are telling the world press the invasion pretext was a lie and their commander in chief is a liar.
I would add, at the risk of belaboring a point - had the UAF not fought, there would not have been POWs, and the Kremlin lie would have almost certainly worked once more. This is another reason why, if I have to pick one thing, UAF willingness to fight hard is the key to how this war has played out, and will play out.
Parallel to that, widely reported in Ukrainian media, and originating with the news feed Guildhall, the first resignations of RF contract soldiers from the RF army, specifically 41Army, have made their way to the public. The images are handwritten resignation letters. The justifications are, basically, “I quit because I don’t want to be cannon fodder and because the RF army behaved stupidly.” The fact soldiers and officers are resigning is not surprising - but what is, I think, is that official Russian Army handwritten resignation letters made their way to the free Ukrainian internet - assuming of course this isn't faked. Assuming the letters are real, and they look pretty real to me, this is an indicator of extremely good Ukrainian spy craft or angry and possibly seditious Russian citizens working in the 41st Army personnel system. Or both.
Either way, going forward, one has to assume whatever the RF attempts, will be with a military lacking a good chunk of its most experienced manpower, because besides those that are quitting, there are the ones that are in hospital, and too injured to participate in any offensive any time soon.
As far as the Ukraine General Staff is concerned, as of the 1800 sitrep on the 19th, major RF offensives are no longer possible, and local offensives might just be possible, but they will strain RF resources.
Across the front, the sitrep says, almost all RF forces are fully halted, digging in, and shooting artillery from time to time. In the Volyn sector, reportedly, RF forces aren’t even trying to engage UAF forces.
North of Kyiv RF forces are still stalled, roughly along the Irpen’ River, centered on the villages Irpen’ and Bucha. The sitrep, Ukrainian media and even a local source inform me that the UAF defenses there are intact, and waiting for more armored columns to drive out into the open.
The commander of Kyiv defenses, MG Mykola Zhynov, gave a long interview to Novoe Vremya magazine today, in which he said that Kyiv was flat out secure from the forces the RF has arrayed against it. His argument came down to numbers: Kyiv is huge city, it took more than two million men to capture Berlin, the whole RF army in Ukraine is about 200,000 men, and only a portion of that is deployed against Kyiv, that portion is already beaten up, and the UAF forces around Kyiv by most accounts are more numerous and better skilled than RF forces, and the Ukrainians are dug in. All probably true, but also probable is that General Zhynov’s ulterior goal was to calm panicky Kyivites, and hopefully coax some of them back to work.
Zhynov’s assurances notwithstanding, during the day cruise missiles hit Kyiv’s Antonov aviation plant, and an apparently long-range shell hit the Lavina shopping mall. A shot down missile crashed into the Kurinovsky district. Both strike locations are within city limits but some distance from the city center.
Oleksay Arestovych, a Zelenskyy spokesman, made the interesting comment today that UAF intelligence has observed RF forces shifting east and south, away from Kyiv. Yes, away. No confirmation on that.
Arestovych also said the UAF today knocked down 4 RF combat jets, 2 helicopters, and at least one cruise missile. Valery Zaluzhny, the UAF commander, claimed the UAF over the course of the war has shot down 77 combat jets and 90 helicopters. MG Zhynov claimed the airspace over Kyiv was particularly dangerous and RF pilots were avoiding it.
Razman Kadyrov, Chechnya’s strongman, surfaced in the social media today and said he was in Ukraine and would bring fire and sword to the enemy. Arestovych said that Kyiv defenders were waiting for him.
In the Kharkiv sector, according to the UGS, the UAF inflicted a "decisive repulse" (i.e., almost certainly, shot up another armored column, assuming it happened); and near Izium there was a UAF counterattack. Results weren’t reported. Again, today, RF artillery hit Kharkiv, including the university. Also bombarded were Chernihiv and Nezhin, the latter with Uragan rocket artillery, a powerful weapon similar to the US MLRS.
As for the past two days, the most RF pressure was in the east (Donetsk) and Tavriya (Krivoi Rih) directions, where according to the GS the Russians are still pressing, in some cases successfully. The GS this is in part due to RF numerical superiority, but a better description would be limited UAF numbers. RF forces opposite Mykolaiv are still stopped. Mykolaiv regional head Valery Kim posted images of a message sent by RF forces to him by the WhatsAp communications ap suggesting he surrender the city, and his answer, suggesting they surrender themselves and their weapons instead. His photograph of the exchange should be below this text.
In Mariupol, according an unconfirmed news report, a small relief convoy entered the city. For now take that with a big grain of salt. It’s not clear to me whether there’s still fighting, but what is clear is that the Marines and Azov Regiment are still in the city and saying they don’t plan to give up.
Finally, the ceasefire talks. According to both RF and UA spokesmen, they are progressing, there are points of agreement, and that there is a lot more to discuss. According to Iryna Venediktova, Ukraine’s Prosecutor General, one of the topics is prisoner exchange.

[68RR]

Ukraines pounding Russian armor



https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status...nluUrDG_T4QRxs

[68RR]

BMW new use

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status...BvdlvkEXbGAHGs

[68RR]

This morning:

Morning Update:
Strategic:
1. Putin has signed a law that makes it legal for Russian airlines to seize aircraft that they have leased from Western corporations. There are hundreds of aircraft representing billions of dollars involved with this, as much of Russia's commercial aircraft fleet was leased to the airlines.
2. According to today's Wall Street Journal, the Russians intend on seizing trademarks and assets of Western companies in Russia should their personnel speak out against the war. Additionally, letters and "visits" to these companies' Russian headquarters threatened any corporate officer or leader with arrest if they speak out against the war. This has triggered a sharp reduction in corporate communication between the branches of such businesses as Yum in Russia with corporate offices in the West out of fear the Russian government is reading emails and has tapped their phones.
Putin has made it clear he supports nationalizing any business that adheres to the Western sanctions. From 2008 to 2020, the GDP per capita in Russia has fallen 13% at the same time the US's has grown 31%. Nationalizing these company's assets is essentially theft.
3. These developments, especially the seizure of aircraft, will have dire long-term consequences for the Russian economy. Even if the war ends tomorrow and sanctions are lifted, foreign investment in the Russian economy is not going to return, at least not from the West. This represents a long-term, massive shift from the post-Cold War policies and trade connections to Russia.
4. The Russians have asked for economic and military assistance from the Chinese. The U.S. is in serious negotiations with the Chinese at the moment re: Ukraine and Russia, but the Chinese have indicated they'll be willing to help Russia. Lots of speculation on whether the Chinese will help defuse the situation, or take advantage of it by making Russia almost totally reliant on Chinese aid and trade. In theory, the Russians cannot sustain the war much longer without material and financial assistance. In practice, nation-states always find a way to continue to finance and sustain military operations once they've begun, no matter the long term consequences to their economy and society. A good example is the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s. But, lots of commentary right now stemming from a retired US general's comment that the Russians are approaching the point at which they will run out of ammunition, supplies and funds to sustain the war. The Russians will find a way to continue it.
5. The UN Secretary General said yesterday that nuclear war is in the "realm of possibility" as a result of the invasion of Ukraine.
6. Nearly every European nation has dramatically increased their defense budgets in the wake of the invasion. This includes Germany which has doubled its defense spending.
7. In the middle of all the chaos, there are early signs of a spring pandemic resurgence. Germany's numbers went from about 50k/day at the start of the month to 200k this week. Over the past two years, surges like this usually hit the U.S. about a month to six weeks later.
Ukraine:
1. Heavy air and artillery attacks continued through the night in Kyiv and Kharkiv. Large missile strikes rocked downtown Kyiv, and more cluster munitions were used on Kharkiv.
2. The Ukrainian Air Force has stated it has shot down 19 aircraft, 20 helicopters, 5 UAVs, and 1 cruise missile since the start of the war. The Ukrainians are claiming almost 200 aircraft and drones total.
3. ISW reports the Russian advances in the NW and NE of Kyiv have been "rolled back" several miles. Whether that is from the Russians falling back to consolidate further, or ISW miscalculated the extend of the Russian advances is not clear.
4. A live news broadcast in the studio of one of Russia's state-controlled tv stations was interrupted when one of its reporters protested the war on-air.
https://twitter.com/KevinRo.../statu...44144206888962...
Interview with the woman who did this:
https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status...57196641853447...
5. Russian artillery and air attacks have started against Ukrainian military/industrial targets, including the Antonov aircraft factory in Kyiv.
6. A Russian drone crashed in Romania over the weekend.
7. Ukrainian refugee numbers are approaching 3 million people. Poland's been overwhelmed by the influx.

[scootro]

This ain't war! everyone is kissing China's ass. Putin showing a little power for his political needs. Ukraine is full of extremists assholes trying to play tough. Biden needs the political football really bad because he sucks! An the democrats gotta steal the most money they can get before the year is out.

This so called war is built upon greed and lies.


this professor predicted this in 2015

37:58 What should be done
39:50 Consequences
44:02 Ukraine
1:07 Germany