DRUDGEREPORT.COM Caucus voting open

[mikec]

Initial polling data coming in from the caucus shows Santorum @ 26%, Ron Paul @ 23% - Obviously this could swing wildly as only 1% of locations are reporting.

Too early to start kicking dirt...

Though I do hope that Santorum takes it over Romney.

[CJ]

Initial polling data coming in from the caucus shows Santorum @ 26%, Ron Paul @ 23% - Obviously this could swing wildly as only 1% of locations are reporting.

[CJ]

And on post 45 CJ, I would never do that man. I am still learning in life and I wish that I had the education a lot of you guys have the benefit of. Not trying to be an ass, but I do try to draw out more insight in areas that I don't have that benefit. I am learning, as are you.

And I really wish that it didn't come across as an over reaction. Not sure why that is presumably so.

No sweat, we're all good, just need to not let politics get the best of us. We're on the same team. Except for majorownage, he crazy.

[mikec]

And on post 45 CJ, I would never do that man. I am still learning in life and I wish that I had the education a lot of you guys have the benefit of. Not trying to be an ass, but I do try to draw out more insight in areas that I don't have that benefit. I am learning, as are you.

And I really wish that it didn't come across as an over reaction. Not sure why that is presumably so.

[CJ]

Yes, I do. Where do you get the factual basis for their not turning out? It's conjecture. Which is my premise. All that I was trying to say is that you can't really make such a definitive statement when it is NOT born out by stats. Nothing more, nothing less.

Ehh, fuck it. You are a smart guy, I generally agree with what you say, and this is pointless. Though I do hope that you are proven wrong tomorrow. 8)

You must understand that sitting on your ass clicking "Ron Paul" on your computer is a lot easier and more convenient than participating in the caucus. Since the majority of online poll takers are statistically younger, and the majority of supporters Ron Paul are younger, there is most likely going to be a large gap in who votes on a website, and who actually participates in the caucus. All of them will be affected, but I feel Ron Paul will be the most affected. I'm pretty sure everyone in here knows I'm entirely theorizing and I'm giving the basis for my theory, and I'm not going to pull our charts and references. I could be wrong as hell, I just presume he isn't going to get over 1/3rd the vote in a 5 candidate race.

[mikec]

You don't. I said it would be inflated by that much because his voters are primarily the youth. And they do not turn out traditionally. Read my previous post.

Yes, I do. Where do you get the factual basis for their not turning out? It's conjecture. Which is my premise. All that I was trying to say is that you can't really make such a definitive statement when it is NOT born out by stats. Nothing more, nothing less.

Ehh, fuck it. You are a smart guy, I generally agree with what you say, and this is pointless. Though I do hope that you are proven wrong tomorrow. 8)

[91cavgt]

Current updated numbers as of 7:11 pm.

READERS FROM IOWA VOTED IN DRUDGE CAUCUS:

PAUL 33.55%
SANTORUM 20.89%
ROMNEY 20.54%
GINGRICH 10.28%
PERRY 7.37%

[CJ]

I do read what you type CJ. And so far I have seen nothing but your opinion. Just curious as to where you draw your numbers as thus far you have provided not a damned thing other than conjecture.

Damn.

You don't. I said it would be inflated by that much because he has a high percentage of the youth vote. And they do not turn out traditionally. Read my previous post - I use the exact same figure I posted previously. And if there is something you really need to learn Mike, it's not to overreact, both me and you know that. So settle down, and realize I already explained this to you, you just didn't read it. Just like your smart ass remark regarding polling previously. Let's see how the actual numbers turn out. I'm factoring in historical trends on youth turnout and I trust it. If I'm wrong then I'm wrong, you can tout it and hold it over my head all you like - call me Nostradamus or whatever the hell you want.

My point is Ron Paul's vote is HIGHLY weighted towards youth. Youth is statistically the hardest to get turnout from. It is the risk you take vesting in it. So, the Paul campaign should expect their polling is roughly 20-30% over inflated.

That's the post you didn't read.

[Vertnut]

And currently, in the drudge/iowa only numbers, he has a 13 point lead. Based on that (alone) you are shit out of luck on being the Nostradamus of 2012...

I'm guessing what CJ meant, was that RP won't win Iowa by 13 points in the actual vote.

[mikec]

And currently, in the drudge/iowa only numbers, he has a 13 point lead. Based on that (alone) you are shit out of luck on being the Nostradamus of 2012...

[mikec]

You don't read shit I type, do you? You even participated in the discussion where I made that statement. Just wait for the polling numbers, we'll see who's right.

I do read what you type CJ. And so far I have seen nothing but your opinion. Just curious as to where you draw your numbers as thus far you have provided not a damned thing other than conjecture.

Damn.

[majorownage]

^(chuckled)

Paul is rigged to lose by ~2%, anything wider won't be believable.

Thats my prediction. We'll see.

[CJ]

Please put down that glass of kool aid and provide some semblance of validation for that wild ass-u-m(e)ption?

You don't read shit I type, do you? You even participated in the discussion where I made that statement. Just wait for the polling numbers, we'll see who's right.

[mikec]

I would assume Ron Paul's vote is going to be pretty inflated given the age group of his base. I'd predict a 30% inflation of his polling. I'd say he should do around 20-23%

Please put down that glass of kool aid and provide some semblance of validation for that wild ass-u-m(e)ption?

[Vertnut]

C'mon. You know that Obama can blame anything on Bush and get a free pass.

Bush-bashing has been media dogma since 2000 and these young voters have never paid attention to politics when Bush WASN'T at fault for whatever is wrong with this country.

If Obama is even moderately successful at deflecting blame to Bush, Congress, and wall street fat cats, he is home free.

3 years down...it won't work anymore. He owns this economy and his own failed policies.