Writing is on the wall....(Saudi Government)

[slow99]

china owns 8.9% doesn't seem that big.

I think they're closer to 7.5% and Japan is around 7% ... but regardless. China at 7-8% is big, but not like the propaganda that gets thrown around would lead you to believe. Japan won't dump it b/c it would make zero sense. China shouldn't for the same reason, but the problem is, who the fuck trusts China?

In addition to the obvious problems it would cause, what happens when you go dumping huge amounts of an asset's volume on the market? They'd get hit with fucking huge losses in addition to the secondary negative effects.

I was referring mainly to your original post that said:

All saudi or for that matter anyone has to do is drop the dollar and stop buying treasury bonds and our economy will be hurt badly. If they release the treasury bonds they already have. We will have a great recession.

Look, there's no doubt we're in a bad spot ... if you've followed this forum for any amount of time you'd see that that is my opinion. I just think that sensationalism only compounds things. The world loses faith and stops buying our shit, yes we're screwed. My problem is in the way you (in my mind) conveyed it.

[03mustangdude]

So, all inclusive, about 1.5%.

china owns 8.9% doesn't seem that big.

[slow99]

246.4billion but that's with Oil exporters include Ecuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria.
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-cen...uments/mfh.txt

So, all inclusive, about 1.5%.

[03mustangdude]

How many do they have?

246.4billion but that's with Oil exporters include Ecuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria.

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt

[slow99]

All saudi or for that matter anyone has to do is drop the dollar and stop buying treasury bonds and our economy will be hurt badly. If they release the treasury bonds they already have. We will have a great recession.

How many do they have?

[03mustangdude]

All saudi or for that matter anyone has to do is drop the dollar and stop buying treasury bonds and our economy will be hurt badly. If they release the treasury bonds they already have. We will have a great recession.

[Captain Crawfish]

Seen a few lng diesels pulling hills. It works

[slow99]

China ... etc etc ....

Not bad. There are much larger problems looming in China. They have to transition to a more consumer-driven economy. Here's something I put together about China a few weeks ago. It's a relatively quick synopsis of what's going on there:



We're negative on the longer-term prospects for Chinese markets. New leaders in China have expressed a desire to shift away from its heavy addiction to capital investment as a source of economic growth. The actual transition is still in the very early innings. In our view, China’s economic imbalance will continue to worsen as long as investment remains the key driver. We recommend very small direct exposure to China.


1. For years, China’s growth model was export driven. Not all growth came from exports, but China used external demand to ramp its industrial development in a way that couldn’t be sustained by demand from within.

2. This model worked fine until the economy grew too large (ie, 2nd largest in the world) … it’s too difficult for the rest of the world to absorb all the imbalance.

3. After the 2008 crisis, we began to see signs that other countries could not keep going into debt to consume China’s net output. China saw a huge drop in exports.

4. To make up for the huge decline in exports, China undertook monetary stimulus; it translated into a capital investment boom (infrastructure, housing, factories). Exports fell from 8% of GDP to 2%, while capital investment rose from low 40s to 50%.

5. There’s no real end user for all this investment anymore, the external countries are tapped out.

6. The Chinese economy must transition from within – one driven by internal Chinese consumption. Right now there is massive overcapacity across all industries in China, including commodity related ones.

7. Too much investment has been based on the idea that the government guarantees everything.

8. This is a problem though, every year capital investment has to increase to drive growth in GDP. Banks have to finance this growth … but projects are idle and not generating returns, banks not being paid back. The only way to make new loans is credit expansion.

9. China has seen huge credit expansion, $600 billion USD in Q4’12 and $1 trillion USD in Q1’13. Top regulators in China have likened this to a Ponzi scheme.

10. The Chinese government now has to reign in lending. They must remove excess, let the bubble burst. When they try to do this we’ll see the credit crisis. China has to begin the process of creative destruction – letting businesses and banks fail.

[Lajntx]

But with China emerging as a power house...our influence is growing less by the year; Not to mention all of the other shennanigans in the news. Pretty soon, China, Saudi and Russia will realize they have us by the balls economically and influence.

I dont know about that. China really is the the modern day version of a "Tale of Two Cities ". While the Urban areas are very modern & western, the country side and most of the population still lives in a hybrid mix of the 15th, 18th, and 20th Centuries.

When I was there in 2009, it seemed like the cities were a worst case scenario of Los Angeles smog wise before. The Chinese people overall seemed to have an obsessive love affair for American Culture and Products. However, as a group they seemed bankrupt morally as a society. The country side seemed like a mix of Amish Country with the occasional "English Tourist".

While China may indeed be putting a lot of GDP into their military to modernise it to the point to give it token amount of resemblence of a world power, they like so many other countries have a major educational curve to overcome when it comes to training the troops as many of them dont have the educational background to simply go to basic training, tech training, and then be deployed like the US Military has with its new recruits.

As for them being a true economic power to the point of surpassing the USA, that remains to be seen since they refuse to put their own currency on the open market and subjecting it to the ebbs and flows of a world economy. For now, they are content buying as many American Bonds, real, estate deals , and currency as they can and using that as leverage in the world`s markets which leaves them tied to the hip of the United States economically and subject to having their own economy crash 10X worse shold the US economy crash. Their economy which is heavily based on profits from exports is faciing stiff competition from the likes of Vietnam & India which are on a crusade to undercut the Chinese cost wise on producing and exporting goods to the west. Give it about another 10 years, and lets see where their economy really is.

On a final note, while here in the USA there is a deep divide on the political scale of things, over there there is really several countries forced into being one and more than a few of them dont want to be in China, and would leave it if they could ( and will whenever they can ).

They are a threat not to be taken lightly, nor should they be made out to be bigger than they really are. I give them about 25-30 years before they implode and break apart like the Soviet Union -or- have their own civil war

[Chas_svo]

Only in the second instance, where you were going to make, "Saudi," possessive, but left off the, "s."

Really?

Who is using Yale's keyboard?

[Trip McNeely]

Fuck Middle East Oil. We are already surpassing them in Natural Gas in the US as a whole, and we haven't even touched the surface. Oil is another story and we are turning and burning in Tx and the Bakken for that as well. Like someone said above, the EPA along with misinformation funded by the people who would be greatly impacted by our independence (Saudi/Russia) are the 2 biggest barriers. 2nd, infrastructure is not yet there, but getting bigger every day. The more pipelines, the more gas can get tapped and out to use.
Here's a great article on what's going on in my industry and neck of the woods. Good stuff.

http://online.wsj.com/article/AP2e119ea41fcd43248a082bc6e6ad4e24.html

PITTSBURGH — Natural gas production from the Marcellus Shale region is growing faster than expected, according to a new federal report issued Tuesday.

Marcellus production has now reached 12 billion cubic feet a day, the Energy Information Administration report found. That's the energy equivalent of about 2 million barrels of oil a day, and more than six times the 2009 production rate.

For perspective, if the Marcellus Shale region were a country, its natural gas production would rank third in the world, after Russia and the rest of the U.S. The Marcellus now produces more than double Iran's yearly natural gas output, and that glut has led to wholesale prices here that are about one-quarter of those in Japan, for example.

The vast majority of the Marcellus gas is coming from Pennsylvania and West Virginia. The shale also lies under other states, but most of the wells in Ohio produce oil, and New York has placed a moratorium on shale gas drilling.

Federal energy experts are surprised by the rapid Marcellus growth, since the number of drilling rigs has fallen over the past two years.

"A year ago, we were not expecting the Marcellus to be at 12 billion cubic feet," said Sam Gorgen of the EIA, which is a part of the Department of Energy.

The current Marcellus production is even higher than the predictions of Terry Engelder, a Penn State University geologist who has drawn praise and criticism for his estimates of how much gas the region holds. Engelder had predicted that the Marcellus wouldn't reach the 12 billion cubic foot rate until 2015, and some critics said that was overly optimistic.

"This is spectacular, relative to what we thought a few years ago," Engelder said of the roughly 4,000 wells in Pennsylvania that are producing.

The EIA also looked at the decline rate of the Marcellus wells, since most of the gas is produced during their first two years.

"It's interesting that it's not falling as steeply" as other shale fields such as the Bakken in North Dakota or Eagle Ford in Texas, Gorgen said.

Travis Windle, a spokesman for the Marcellus Shale Coalition, an industry group, said "shale production continues to soar" in the region, and the number of active drilling rigs is slowly increasing, too.
—Copyright 2013 Associated Press

[Forever_frost]

Might as well use up their reserves first though to keep some of our domestic supply intact for later use.

I considered that but if we don't have these already tapped, it's going to take a while to get them up to speed

[The King]

Thing is, we don't need the Saudi's oil. We have more than enough natural gas and oil to last us for quite a while. The EPA just makes it so expensive for us to use our own materials that it's just easier to import.

Might as well use up their reserves first though to keep some of our domestic supply intact for later use.

[bcoop]

I can read/write webster....let me find out you act as if you never made a mistake, lol much less a typing mistake

Move along troll

Clearly, that has had more of an impact on your life than it has on mine. That's your problem, not mine.


I still know basic grammar that was taught in elementary school.

[Gtracer]

Thing is, we don't need the Saudi's oil. We have more than enough natural gas and oil to last us for quite a while. The EPA just makes it so expensive for us to use our own materials that it's just easier to import.

I did remember hearing something about our reserves...

It's crazy that here we are, arguing about creating jobs and healthcare when we have the answers and solutions to get it done...we just chose to line our (the politicians, lobbyist and CEO's) own pockets?

Why hasn’t someone who is NOT benefiting from all of this come out and...you know what, it probably wouldn’t matter. I am just getting tired of the greed and the "me" syndrome that has developed in this country.