Some info from the Ukraine

[68RR]

Ukraine Update:
Sievierodonetsk Pocket:
Right now, the situation appears to have worsened for the Ukrainians here. The Russian breakthrough at Popasna is being exploited with armored units, and while they have not cut the main supply route into Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk yet, that highway is now under intense artillery bombardment.
At the same time, Russian forces have launched heavy attacks north and northwest of Sievierodonetsk, which could pin Ukrainian forces in place and make any attempt to withdraw to avoid encirclement very difficult.
To the southeast of Sievierodonetsk, a major Russian assault has been grinding toward one of the city's bus stations. So the forces defending the city are being hit on at least two, possibly three sides, plus their rear is being threatened. It is a very serious situation.
Part of the reason for the Russian breakthrough at Popasna appears to be a logistical posture change that has been able to deliver a much higher quantity of artillery ammunition to the forces on the south side of the Pocket. Popasna is a key rail center, with lines going in all compass directions, something the Russians are exploiting. Exactly how they are doing it is unknown at the moment, and the Ukrainians are desperately trying to find those trains and the supply dumps they're delivering the shells to. But the net result has been the Russians were able to keep pounding the Ukrainian forces around Popasna 24/7 with massive artillery strikes without let up. The Ukrainian forces buckled, and the assaulting Russians have exploited that.
There is a lot of confusion and contradictory reporting right now. The ISW reporters that the Ukrainian general staff has stated the Russians in Popasna are digging in. It may be some units are preparing defensive positions in order to hold the breakthrough area against Ukrainian counter-attacks, but the majority of the units there seem to still be pressing their own offensive.
The Russians continue to try to cross the Siverskyi Donets River on the north side of the Pocket. Yesterday, it was reported that they successfully got across in one location. Today, there is at least one, possibly more, efforts undergoing right now to try and get across, with intense fighting the result.
A lot of the troops being thrown into these attacks around the Pocket seem to be Donbass conscripts: meaning Russian-speakers from former Ukrainian territory. The Russian army is great at using non-Russians as cannon fodder, and this seems to be what's going on here too. Some reports suggest that almost half the Russian casualties are Russian-speaking Ukrainians dragooned into service from the occupied areas.
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At Izium, the Ukrainians have launched a counter-attack west of the city. They're currently in the middle of their own river crossing effort there. No word on if it has been successful.
More later today.
Images: Maps of the breakthrough area around Popasna, a general look at the danger it poses to the Pocket, and a closer look at the fighting around Sieverodonetsk itself.

[68RR]

Ukraine Update:
Russian artillery, relentlessly pounding Ukrainian positions in the Sievierdonetsk Pocket, is wearing the defenders down. These bombardments have been followed by piecemeal attacks that usually fail to gain much, if any ground. Earlier this week, there were sixteen apparently uncoordinated attacks around the Pocket that the Ukrainians stopped.
However, in the last 48 hours, it appears the Russians have caused a portion of the Ukrainian lines at Popasna to collapse. A tactical breakthrough with strategic implications is being reported, and the Russians are now sending reinforcements into the area.
The high ground at Popasna serves as a strategic jump-off point to the more flat terrain to the north, behind the Ukrainians defending Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. They've taken that area and have pushed northwest, west and southwest out of it to force a wider gap in the Ukrainian lines, while at the same time moving to cut off the Ukrainian main supply route into Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk. This is the most strategically vulnerable I've seen the Ukrainians since the end of February.
There are reports that the Ukrainians are marshalling a counter-attack. This would make sense, and it needs to happen soon before the Russians can exploit this success.
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In front of Kharkiv, the Russians launched a local attack that recaptured the border town of Ternova. They've been bombarding villages and troop positions along the border further north by Sumy, using guns deep inside Russian territory.
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Mariupol:
Some reports are stating up to 1,700 Ukrainian troops were captured when the defenders of the steel works surrendered. There are some hold outs, and irregular forces have been attacking Russian troops, targeting officers and trains around the ruined city.
The Russians have announced plans to raze the steel works and turn Mariupol into a resort retreat.
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Aid: The 40 billion aid package passed the US Senate. It includes 20 billion in humanitarian aid, and 20 billion in military assistance. Among the new weapon systems committed in this bill are Patriot anti-aircraft missile batteries, (multiple launch rocket system) MLRS artillery platforms. The hundred million in aid just pledged includes more counter battery radars and 18 more 155mm artillery pieces with their towing vehicles and ammunition. So far, the US has given 156,000 155 artillery shells to Ukraine. Additionally, there are reports of TOW wire-guided anti-tank missiles being sent to Ukraine now as well.
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Latest reports suggest the Russians have 106 battalion tactical groups in Ukraine, with roughly 20-25 more around Belgorod, the crucial Russian border city northeast of Kharkiv that is serving as a main supply hub for the north side of the Sievierdonetsk Pocket. If the destruction of 50-55 BTGs is accurate, as has been reported, that would put all but about a dozen of their 180-190 BTGs either committed or in positions around Belgorod. This means the Russian army is almost totally committed to Ukraine with minimal strategic reserves.
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Lastly, increasing reports are coming out of Russia that it is quietly preparing to mobilize and draft military aged men. Men as old as their mid-40s are getting letters urging them to come join the military, but recently others have received notice that if ordered to mobilize, they must appear at a particular place within about a half day.
There are reports that mobilization centers have been hit with Molotov cocktail attacks throughout the Russian Federation in the past few days.
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Overall, the Ukrainians haven't wrested the strategic initiative away from the Russians yet. It looked like that might happen with the counter-offensive at Kharkiv and the destruction of the bridgeheads over the S. Donets on the north side of the Pocket. However, the Russians redoubled their pressure on the Pocket to the south, east, and northeast, and that has led to the situation at Popasna.

[Rick Modena]

All of it. Don’t worry, I’m sure some day ‘never’, we’ll get that budget paid down.

Holt up?!

There's a budget???

[Trip McNeely]

All of it. Don’t worry, I’m sure some day ‘never’, we’ll get that budget paid down.

[ram57ta]

I'm curious as to the percentage of aid sent to Ukraine that will be funneled back to US politicians.

Probably the vast majority of it.

[cool cat]

It is all definitely a huge waste of lives, money, time and other resources. The US taxpayer got screwed over again so corruption could profit.

I'm curious as to the percentage of aid sent to Ukraine that will be funneled back to US politicians.

[quikag]

68RR, I appreciate your continued updates. I tried to find the updates on my own, but have been unable to locate them. So, thank you for posting them here.

[68RR]

The Russian Army Continuum:
In 2010, I stood and listened to Afghan villagers as they described what the Russian occupation was like for them in the 1980s. It was a horrific litany of the most vicious and cruel acts I'd ever heard of--all designed to terrorize the Afghan population into submission.
One man in his fifties related to me how some Russian troops arrived in helicopters one day. They murdered and raped their way through the village. They grabbed him and force-fed him rocks. Then they pinned him to the ground and took turns jumping on his stomach and boot stomping him. He very nearly died in the aftermath, and still suffered daily pain from that torture.
The Afghans I spoke to that day went on to tell me how the predations of the Russian troops were so terrible that the bulk of the surviving villagers made the decision to escape to Pakistan and try to make it to a refugee camp. It was the dead of winter. The Russians had taken all their food, much of their clothing--anything of value. The village began to move out in the snow and freezing weather--some of the people did not even have shoes. Many died on the long, terrible walk to the border.
Flying over the Eastern part of Afghanistan, the legacy and scars of the Russo-Afghan War were everywhere. Entire villages were carpet bombed and abandoned, their ruins visible from the air. On the ground, the ruined compounds gave mute testimony to the firepower unleashed on the population. The barbarity backfired, as it only fueled resentment and swelled the ranks of the Muj, who fought back against the Russians with desperate tenacity.
In one valley that served as a supply line from Pakistan, I learned that the Russian ground attack pilots would strafe any farmer they caught out in the open. Just tending fields and orchards in the valley was dangerous. To stop the flow of supplies, the Russians carpet bombed the valley several times, using mustard gas at least once.
In ten years of war, the Red Army killed somewhere between 550,000 and three million Afghan civilians. Millions more were displaced after their homes and villages were destroyed.
In Syria these past years, the Russians have demonstrated similar behavior. They have targeted civilians as part of a larger strategy to inflict terror on the terrorists. They've killed the families of known insurgents. The capture of Aleppo with Russian forces, including Wagner mercenaries, resulted in the deaths of thousands of civilians.
So, the backstory to the Ukraine War is the Russian Army's continuum of behavior. It has not changed since World War II. The murders of civilians, the wanton pillaging and sexual assaults are simply a part of the tradition and legacy of the Russian military. Their values, strategic thinking, actions in the field all reflect this. They do not think or act like a Western Army and do not share the strategic values that evolved in the American military after WWII and Korea where we went from using carpet bombing and incendiaries to kill civilians from the air to doing everything possible to minimize civilian losses.
The Russian Army is a military that uses terror, torture and murder as a strategic implement to impose its will on resistant populations.
The nations of Eastern Europe know this all too well, and it is why they are doing everything possible to ensure Russian boots never touch their soil again.

[AnthonyS]

It is all definitely a huge waste of lives, money, time and other resources. The US taxpayer got screwed over again so corruption could profit. I like Putin, Zelensky and Bran Don all the same. They are all 3 horrible leaders and don’t care anything about the people they are supposed to represent.

To top it all off based on how many pols and Hollywierdos have been to the Ukraine recently, it’s clearly a lot safer than the US southern border and most of our blue cities.

[Gasser64]

It doesn't sound very positive but, I think that's how all this tremendous waste will turn out.

The most positive thing will be russia ending this thing soon. Some smart people are saying there might be 3 weeks left. They're resolved not to be encircled by nato/EU/"west" in general. They've been trying to get a non-aggression treaty made up and ratified since 2004. Ain't happening, so now they've gotta fight. No choice, let it go long enough and sure as shit the west will start telling rusky what to do and where to go. He ain't havin' it. He said no, with his artillery.

[68RR]

Interesting comment posted...
Well Sirs, I have kind of a different take than y'all on this situation.
While the Russians may not have complete control of the air war, the UKR doesn't either. Many folks have pointed out that the Russian C2 is having difficulty at the operational level executing offensive operations, we haven't seen the Ukrainian's try to put together more than local area counter-attacks of limited range. The Ukrainians have done extremely well at defensive operations but they can't "win" by defense alone. They need to generate a very fast offensive operation that cuts very deep into one of the extended "pinchers" that the Russians are dangling out there. With their limited size, they will probably only get one shot at it.
If they are unable to do that, I think the conflict will become stagnant like it has been since 2014. The Russians will end up holding more terrain (rubble) than they had before and will just let the Ukrainian economy drag down.
If recent history is any guide, then the "West's" resolve will weaken over time. Methinks we will see the same situation we've had for the last 8 years. A stalemate.
The Russians can afford to wait. They'll find ways around the sanctions just like other countries (Iran) have. They can re-build their military, learn from their mistakes and try again.
It doesn't sound very positive but, I think that's how all this tremendous waste will turn out.

[68RR]

What does this have to do with Ukraine?
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The Russians have a complex strategic dilemma. They've seen first hand that their maneuver battalion tactical groups have at best, limited abilities to carry out effective offensive operations. Troop morale is terrible. There are reports of local commanders executing some of their own men to motivate the others to go forward, a practice that harkens back to the classical era and was called Decimation in the Roman Army.
They lack supplies and in some areas, combat power to achieve a major breakthrough. They cannot replace tank and vehicle losses. And, unless they mobilize their entire nation, they are running out of manpower. A full mobilization could have lots of consequences on the Russian home front, so Putin has not done that yet.
The one thing the Russians have is artillery and its firepower. So they've gone full Falkenhayn and are using it to grind down the Ukrainian Army much as the Germans tried at Verdun. The Sievierodonetsk Pocket has become the 2022 version of the Verdun Salient of 1916. Here, the Ukrainians must fight and hold the majors cities, and that strategically has tied them to defending an area surrounded on three sides by the bulk of Russia's remaining forces--and its artillery assets.
We have no real idea on how hard the Ukrainians are being hit, as those numbers are well concealed by Kyiv and the Russian claims are ridiculously high. The Ukrainians are doing their best to mitigate Russian firepower by keeping much of their defenses mobile. Some are calling this yo-yo tactics. Basically, the Ukrainians have a network of fixed defenses resistant to artillery that anchor their lines. Between them, mobile Ukrainian forces are fighting delaying actions, falling back, counter-attacking, then falling back again. They're wearing away at the Russians at the same time the Russians are trying to wear down the Ukrainians. It is a massive battle of attrition. The Russians have gained some ground, but they have not achieved any of the deep penetrations I think most in the West would have expected from a heavily mechanized armor-heavy army. The Russians just don't have that capacity, too limited by their morale issues, training deficiencies, equipment and small logistics tail.
However, they can grind away, wear down the Ukrainians, then make key gains of lesser depth and requiring lesser penetrations. This is happening right now, and may be one of the most important moments of the campaign in the Donbas.
On the north side of the pocket, the Russians have attempted, or have actually crossed the Siverskyi-Donets River and might have established a foothold near a town called Belogorovka. If they are able to exploit this, they might be able to cut off Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk from immediately behind both cities. This would be a shallow penetration, not a deep one like the effort at Izium was designed to do, so it is within the capabilities of the Russian military at this point.
Exactly what has happened at this bridgehead is unclear. There has been heavy fighting. Ukrainain Air Force jets have launched attacks, as have UKR artillery units. There are lots of drone photos of destroyed armored vehicles around wrecked pontoon bridges and both sides are claiming those are the other's tracks. One thing is clear, a large battle is taking place.
One account from a Ukrainian engineer is here:
https://twitter.com/kms_d4k/status/1524506104192974849...
There are unconfirmed reports that the Ukrainian forces defending the city of Sievierodonetsk received conflicting orders: stay and keep fighting/pull out. They were caught in the middle of moving/return to their defensive positions by the Russians and badly chewed up by artillery.
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Into this mix, the first Western artillery systems are arriving at the front lines. Ukrainian units have undergone crash training courses on them in Germany, working with U.S. National Guard units--including one Florida artillery battalion. These guns, the ammunition we provide, the counter-battery radar systems and the UAV's Turkey is providing will inflict heavy losses on Russian artillery units.
Additionally, they will be able to range across Russia's lines of supply, thanks to the successes reserve Ukrainian units have had in a counter-attack they've launched northeast of Kharkiv.
With the Russians focused on the Donbas, the Ukrainians have methodically cleared the Russian forces out of the Kharkiv area, pushed them out of artillery range of the city to relieve the civilian population there, and have driven all the way to the Russian border in one place. The Russians hold no more than a depth of 10 kms of Ukrainian territory in this area now, and Western-made artillery deployed to the region can barrage the rail lines, bridges and roads the Russian effort at Izium depends on. Additionally, a key Russian hydroelectric dam is now reportedly within Ukrainian artillery range.
Russian forces northeast of Kharkiv consist now of three battered BTGs. Maybe a couple thousand men total. This has forced the Russians to move troops away from the Donbas and send them north to Belgograd, the Russian border city that's northeast of Kharkiv. Ukrainian intelligence estimates the Russians now have about 20 BTGs there, which is almost as many as they threw into the Izium offensive. This could indicate they are planning to counter-attack and try to push the Ukrainians back to Kharkiv.
Whatever their intentions, the Ukrainians have forced the Russians to pull units away from their main effort in the Donbas, making them even more reliant on the grinding mill of artillery and possibly making it more difficult to reinforce whatever bridgehead they have established over the S. Donets.
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Western news reports, based on Ukrainian official releases, have detailed the efforts the Russians have made to conceal their actual losses to their own people. If these stories are true, it is nothing short of ghoulish. In the Donbas, they have created what amounts to a gigantic body dump. Families wanting the remains of their loved ones have to bribe the guards to go search through the piles of corpses to find their son or husband. Other reports of bodies being stacked or stored elsewhere have dotted the narrative since February. Bottom line: if this is true, the Russians would only do this if 1.) they are short transport to return them home or 2.) they fear the domestic consequences if the actual casualties were known to its people.
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The head of Russia's 2nd largest oil company died under strange circumstances. Allegedly, he died after a shaman gave him a dose of venom from a poisonous toad as a cure for a hangover. Alexander Subbotin had opposed the war in February and called for a quick peaceful resolution. He's the sixth billionaire oligarch to die under strange circumstances since the start of the war.
Images: Maps of the various fronts, plus imagery from the bridgehead.

[68RR]

Ukraine Update
The Return of the Blood Miller of Verdun:
In February 1916, Germany's Chief of the Army General Staff Erich von Falkenhayn unleased a new strategy to end WWI in the West.
Exsanguination.
The idea behind the new strategy was to pick a place the French would have to defend, then smother the troops there with the largest artillery bombardment in human history. Taking land was less important than killing French soldiers, and the German troops on the ground were to only move forward in slow, deliberate advances carried out only after their artillery smashed everything in their line of advance.
There was no breakthrough intended or sought with this strategy. It was straight up a strategy of simple macro level killing. Bleed the French Army white until it collapses was the order of the day.
This horrific new offensive began in February 1916 with about 800 German artillery pieces firing a million shells into a 20 mile long front three miles deep. A hundred plus years later, the shell craters can still be seen, having permanently scarred the French countryside.
Initially, the new offensive seemed to work. The French took devastating losses, while German infantry units suffered very few. However, the exsanguination campaign required sustained commitments that sucked German resources away from other areas. Millions of artillery shells, gas shells, new barrels for the guns, etc. had to be fed into this tiny battlefront at a time when Germany was fighting a two front war.
And, as the campaign continued, it morphed into something more than Falkenhayn had intended, much like Stalingrad and Guadalcanal did in WWII: it became a titanic battle of wills between two warring nations. So much was staked on this battle, that Germany had to show its people some sort of success, which of course was defined by territory gained. As the campaign wore on through the spring and early summer, the Germans used infantry attacks more often to try and rip a hole in the French lines. Take Verdun, and German national morale would soar. Lose Verdun, and French morale may buckle.
Ultimately, this campaign to bleed the French white did just that, but it bled the German Army white as well. What had started as a way to minimize German losses ended with somewhere around 350,000 men killed, wounded or missing. The French lost about 400,000. Falkenhayn, who became known as the Blood Miller of Verdun, was demoted and sent to go invade Romania. The French Army, badly hurt by these losses, attempted a massive frontal assault offensive in the spring of 1917, lost tens of thousands of men in the first 48 hours to no gain, and mutinied. It was never the same after that.
A hundred years later, farmers in the Verdun area continue to plow up the remains of unknown soldiers from both sides. They are taken to the Ossuaire and interred there.

[Gasser64]

Russia's victory parade:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czKIvFGMJPU

[AnthonyS]

After working with Russians, Ukrainians and knowing too many leftists, I don’t believe anything any Commies say. I believe none of these posts on the Ukraine. Show me real video footage, and I will decide for myself. Hundreds of cameras on NY subways, everyone carries one in their pockets now, and there is no video of the mass murder on the Subway….. no video of Epstein…. and so little real footage from the Ukraine.

Everything for the US gulf war when Schwartzkopf was in command was on live feed 24/7.

Everything now is highly controlled curated and stinks of BS.

The world is so full of shit now the most trusted man on the planet is the Fear Factor dude.

I don’t buy any of this copy pasta BS from any side.

And as long as our border is a gaping post abortion vagina, I don’t care one iota about the Ukraine’s border.

It’s still not too late to WTFU, or is it?