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Russia Update:
A lot of crazy stuff is unfolding in Russian right now. There are wild rumors, lots of speculation and a few knowns.
The upshot: The Russians have been using a mercenary company called the Wagner Group to carry out offensive operations for months in Ukraine. This company is led by a guy named Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is basically a street thug from Leningrad turned hot dog salesman, turned mob boss, turned mercenary company founder and war criminal for activities in Syria.
He is wanted on many varied charges in the West. The FBI has a $250K reward out for Prigozhin, and he has been tied to election interference in UK and US elections and various cyber-based propaganda/misinformation campaigns.
This is not a good man. He is a thug, and we do not want him running a country with thousands of nukes.
After many, many conflicts with the Russian military and the Minister of Defense, Shoigu, Progozhin seems to have launched what one Russian general is calling a "state coup." He is being accused by the Russian government of "armed mutiny" and "rebellion."
Today, Progozhin called on the Russian people to be liberated from those who are "bombing civilians." Exactly what that means is unclear, whether he wants a complete regime change or is actively rebelling against the Russian Ministry of Defense is not clear.
However, it appears Wagner troops, along with Russian military deserters, have moved into the Russian city of Rostov and have occupied the Southern Military District HQ. This is the Russian military's senior command center for the fighting in southern Ukraine.
In taking over the city, Wagner troops have allegedly shot down two Russian helicopters that attacked Wagner vehicles and men. A third helicopter crew reportedly refused to fly this mission against fellow Russians.
Several anti-Putin dissidents have publicly sided with Progozhin. Meanwhile the two Russian generals Wagner regards with most respect, Surovikin and Alexseyev, have made video recorded appeals to Wagner's men to stop and be loyal to Putin. Alexseyev said they were stabbing Russia in the back.
Irony alert: General Surovikin took part in the 1991 failed coup against Gorbachev, and his men killed several counter-protesters in Moscow, for which he was later jailed. He looks drunk in the video he made appealing to Wagner to stop.
There are rumors and reports galore. Lots of checkpoints and lots of armed Russian troops are now stationed around Moscow and on the roads south of the capital. Meanwhile there are persistent reports of fighting between Russian security forces and Wagner troops 200 miles north of Rostov.
One seriously spicy/stupid/crazy rumor is that Putin cannot be found and nobody is running the country at the moment, and that he's preparing to flee to Uruguay.
About thirty minutes ago, Russian sources reported two presidential helicopters leaving the Kremlin.
There are wild rumors that suggest Putin is using Wagner to get rid of Shoigu, who has proven to be totally incompetent and corrupt through the Ukraine War. I seriously doubt this. Putin could have suicided him a long time ago.
Prigozhin claims he has 50,000 troops. Rumors are flying that the Kremlin has moved a Chechan special forces battalion to a blocking position south of Moscow to stop Wagner from getting into the city.
Remember as you watch/listen/read the news that this situation is unfolding in a country with very tight media controls. There is tons of speculation, tons of armchair observers making outlandish predictions.
This is an impossibly confused situation and exactly what is going on will not be known for many, many years. That said, there does seem to be confirmed, sporadic Russian-on-Russian fighting going on.
I'll post updates through the weekend as events develop.
10:00 PM Pacific Time: There is a report that the 45th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade was activated and was to be used to defend Moscow in case Wagner troops actually do push toward the Capital. The report says the troops refused and remained in their barracks.
This is one of Russia's elite units. This report seems suspect, as the 45--or at least elements of it--were pivotal in stopping part of the Ukrainian counter-offensive & was the unit that destroyed a bunch of NATO first line equipment, including German main battle tanks and US Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles.
Russia Update:
A lot of crazy stuff is unfolding in Russian right now. There are wild rumors, lots of speculation and a few knowns.
The upshot: The Russians have been using a mercenary company called the Wagner Group to carry out offensive operations for months in Ukraine. This company is led by a guy named Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is basically a street thug from Leningrad turned hot dog salesman, turned mob boss, turned mercenary company founder and war criminal for activities in Syria.
He is wanted on many varied charges in the West. The FBI has a $250K reward out for Prigozhin, and he has been tied to election interference in UK and US elections and various cyber-based propaganda/misinformation campaigns.
This is not a good man. He is a thug, and we do not want him running a country with thousands of nukes.
After many, many conflicts with the Russian military and the Minister of Defense, Shoigu, Progozhin seems to have launched what one Russian general is calling a "state coup." He is being accused by the Russian government of "armed mutiny" and "rebellion."
Today, Progozhin called on the Russian people to be liberated from those who are "bombing civilians." Exactly what that means is unclear, whether he wants a complete regime change or is actively rebelling against the Russian Ministry of Defense is not clear.
However, it appears Wagner troops, along with Russian military deserters, have moved into the Russian city of Rostov and have occupied the Southern Military District HQ. This is the Russian military's senior command center for the fighting in southern Ukraine.
In taking over the city, Wagner troops have allegedly shot down two Russian helicopters that attacked Wagner vehicles and men. A third helicopter crew reportedly refused to fly this mission against fellow Russians.
Several anti-Putin dissidents have publicly sided with Progozhin. Meanwhile the two Russian generals Wagner regards with most respect, Surovikin and Alexseyev, have made video recorded appeals to Wagner's men to stop and be loyal to Putin. Alexseyev said they were stabbing Russia in the back.
Irony alert: General Surovikin took part in the 1991 failed coup against Gorbachev, and his men killed several counter-protesters in Moscow, for which he was later jailed. He looks drunk in the video he made appealing to Wagner to stop.
There are rumors and reports galore. Lots of checkpoints and lots of armed Russian troops are now stationed around Moscow and on the roads south of the capital. Meanwhile there are persistent reports of fighting between Russian security forces and Wagner troops 200 miles north of Rostov.
One seriously spicy/stupid/crazy rumor is that Putin cannot be found and nobody is running the country at the moment, and that he's preparing to flee to Uruguay.
About thirty minutes ago, Russian sources reported two presidential helicopters leaving the Kremlin.
There are wild rumors that suggest Putin is using Wagner to get rid of Shoigu, who has proven to be totally incompetent and corrupt through the Ukraine War. I seriously doubt this. Putin could have suicided him a long time ago.
Prigozhin claims he has 50,000 troops. Rumors are flying that the Kremlin has moved a Chechan special forces battalion to a blocking position south of Moscow to stop Wagner from getting into the city.
Remember as you watch/listen/read the news that this situation is unfolding in a country with very tight media controls. There is tons of speculation, tons of armchair observers making outlandish predictions.
This is an impossibly confused situation and exactly what is going on will not be known for many, many years. That said, there does seem to be confirmed, sporadic Russian-on-Russian fighting going on.
I'll post updates through the weekend as events develop.
10:00 PM Pacific Time: There is a report that the 45th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade was activated and was to be used to defend Moscow in case Wagner troops actually do push toward the Capital. The report says the troops refused and remained in their barracks.
This is one of Russia's elite units. This report seems suspect, as the 45--or at least elements of it--were pivotal in stopping part of the Ukrainian counter-offensive & was the unit that destroyed a bunch of NATO first line equipment, including German main battle tanks and US Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles.
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