Missing 777

[yellowstang]

If I withdrew all my monies from the bank in 100's, and stacked it up, that's how deep the plane is.

[Baron Von Crowder]

Dick

Its hard to drink all day if you dont start in the morning.

[trblshooter]

Wow that puts things in perspective, quoted because I'm a Dick....





And I'm a bigger dick, quoted it again and you'll get to see first hand...'R'

Dick

[Wicked98Snake]

lol^^^^

[trblshooter]

Wow that puts things in perspective, quoted because I'm a Dick....








And I'm a bigger dick, quoted it again and you'll get to see first hand...'R'

[BP]

It's probably sitting next to Bin Laden's body.

[Labora]

Can you imagine how far the debris field must be spread out at that depth. I wonder in the coming months if anything will wash up on shore anywhere.

[silverhatch]

Nice

[Baron Von Crowder]

that's deep, man.

[juiceweezl]

I hope no one quotes that. Cool graphic though.

[Strychnine]

MH370 and the proverbial haystack

When does an analogy become useless? How about when it’s less exaggerated than the actual facts being analogized? Take the oft-used “needle in a haystack” analogy. That one has been trotted out many times during CNN’s intensive coverage of the search for Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 in the southern Indian Ocean. So much so that Washington Post even made a bit about it. Heck, even I said it on Brooke Baldwin’s show, although I did qualify it somewhat that “the haystack is on the dark side of the moon”. So what’s wrong with the haystack analogy? Nothing, except that finding MH370 is actually much HARDER than finding a needle in a haystack. Go with me on this…

To rigorously compare the search for the MH370 black box to searching for a needle in a haystack we need to do a little bit of mathematics of proportions. Not much, so don’t be put off. There’re some assumptions too, so feel free to tear those apart in the comments section.

To start with, how big is this black box? Well, I don’t have exact measurements, but based on what they’ve shown on the news, a maximum linear dimension of about 2 feet seems about right. OK, how big is a needle? Let’s assume it’s not a giant knitting needle, but a mattress or darning needle, let’s say 3 inches long. The needle and the black box have quite different shapes, but maximum linear dimension is a good proxy for overall size of differently shaped objects, so we’ll use that. So, a needle is about 1/8th the maximum linear dimension of the black box. To be a useful analogy then, the haystack needs to be equal or more than about an eighth the size of the search area because the needle is about an eighth the size of the black box.


So, how big is a haystack? I haven’t the foggiest, I’m not a farmer. But for a starting point, let’s assume that the haystack fits inside a barn. There are several standard size barns, but let’s go with 20’x30’. Nah, let’s go bigger, 36’x60’, and let’s assume the entire footprint of the barn is filled with hay.

Now, since the black box is likely on the bottom at this point, let’s make this about the area, not the volume of the haystack. In other words, the needle is UNDER rather than embedded IN the haystack some non-zero distance off the floor. This is really important , because if we assume volume instead and we’re searching the entire water column, then it’s all over bar the shouting; as WaPo elegantly shows in this infographic, the ocean is deep, Deep, DEEP. That would be one hell of a tall haystack (EDIT: about 1,850 feet tall, proportionally speaking, or 500ft taller than the empire state building). Let’s also assume that the batteries have run out (they will soon if they haven’t already) so the black box is not going to help us find it, the same way a needle won’t help you find it either.

Our haystack is 36′x60′, so that would be 2,160ft2 to search under for a 3 inch (0.25ft) object. This is a size ratio of 1.16 x 10-4 (or 0.000157). The cumulative search area for the black box has been 2.96 million square miles (source: BBC), or 8.25 x 1013 square feet to search for a 2ft object. That’s a search ratio of 2.42 x 10-13, or 9 orders of magnitude difference. Even if you take the most recent focus area of about 30,000 square miles, that’s still 8.36 x 1011 square feet, or ten million times the ratio of the haystack to the needle. It is not an exaggeration, then, to say that the search for MH370 – the black box at least – is not just like finding a needle in a haystack, it’s a billion times harder than that.

Add in the depth factor (go to that WaPo infographic to remind yourself) and you get a feel for the magnitude of the task at hand. If they find anything, it will be a triumph of science, engineering and human determination. I truly hope they do for the sake of the families involved, but we should have some realistic expectations.

http://deepseanews.com/2014/04/mh370-and-the-proverbial-haystack/

[Strychnine]

They said they found a ping. What they didn't say was that a Chinese sailor fell overboard. Wonder what his name was...

Chinese and Australian ships separately reported detecting pulse signals that could have come from missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370's black-box flight recorders.

PERTH, Australia—Chinese and Australian ships reported detecting pulse signals that could have come from the missing Malaysia Airlines 3786.KU +2.44% Flight 370's "black-box" flight recorders, according to the agency leading the hunt.

News of the signals, which was cautiously welcomed by authorities involved in the search, came as "corrected" satellite data shifted the geographical focus of the search, with further analysis of the data suggesting the missing flight could have traveled farther south than previously thought.

The flight recorders are running low on batteries, with signals from their beacons possibly falling silent over the weekend. The detection range of the signal, which is emitted every second, is about one nautical mile.

Australia's Joint Agency Coordination Centre said Sunday that a Chinese naval ship involved in the search, Haixun 01, had detected several "acoustic pings" on Friday and Saturday about 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) apart.

The signals, which on Saturday lasted for about 90 seconds, were thought to be consistent with frequencies belonging to the missing airliner's flight recorders.

HMS Echo, a U.K. Royal Navy ship involved in the multinational search in the southern Indian Ocean, and a number of military aircraft have been sent to help investigate the signals.

About 300 nautical miles away, an Australian naval ship, Ocean Shield, picked up pulse signals on Sunday, which the vessel is now investigating.

The Australian agency said it was cautiously treating Haixun 01's report as the more promising one for now. "This is an important and encouraging lead but one which I urge you to continue to treat carefully," said Air Chief Marshal Angus Houston, who heads the agency. "We will follow up and exhaust every credible lead we receive."

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304441304579484531595183064

[lincolnboy]

i have not read much on this topic, but was there any text message sen out from the passengers.

[Captain Crawfish]

wow that plane has been missing for awhile now! i don't think it's ever going to get found

They will find it. May take years but it will be found

[scootro]

wow that plane has been missing for awhile now! i don't think it's ever going to get found