DFWMustangs stock market game 4 starts 3/25/2014

[slow99]

I think they raise today and say they remain "data dependent" for future hikes through 2016. Bloomberg right now is showing 78% expectation of a raise today. If they don't I think the market sinks.

[347Mike]

1 more hour until decision.

What is everyone's thoughts or probability on raising rates?

[slow99]

I just sealed the deal yesterday and pick up my keys today. The wife is going to do massive cleaning tomorrow and I should have everything moved in shortly after. Nothing like last minute deals.

Wrong thread??

[slow99]

Today's the day ... buckle your chinstraps.

[Broncojohnny]

I just don't see a, quarter of a point, raise being enough to cause panic in either direction. It is kind of like your team is ahead 49-0 and the opposing team kicks a field goal. Yeah there are numbers on the board but not enough to change anything at all.

It may not be an issue with this cycle but during the last one the Fed raised rates 17 times in a row. It is the signal that higher rates are coming later that causes the reaction.

You already see the pain in high yield debt funds, at least two of them shut down redemptions this week. The sheep are running for the exits. My take on it is that they might turn around if rates aren't hiked.

[1carcrazyguy]

I just don't see a, quarter of a point, raise being enough to cause panic in either direction. It is kind of like your team is ahead 49-0 and the opposing team kicks a field goal. Yeah there are numbers on the board but not enough to change anything at all.

[Broncojohnny]

Shit, if they don't raise rates the market will sell off hard, imo

What is your thought process there? I am positioned to get some gains either way, of course. I just think if they don't raise we see "panic buying" where people try get yield for a few more months. I also think that we'll rally if they do raise just because of relief of uncertainty. Interesting times!

[slow99]

Supposedly an 85% chance that the Fed raises rates priced in, if they don't we'll see a huge snapback. I think we'll keep on selling off right up to the finish line.

Shit, if they don't raise rates the market will sell off hard, imo

[Broncojohnny]

Supposedly an 85% chance that the Fed raises rates priced in, if they don't we'll see a huge snapback. I think we'll keep on selling off right up to the finish line.

[1carcrazyguy]

Bought back in (half position) to AAPL in the after hours at 112.94. Figured next week, if it goes down I will add to lower my cost average. If it goes up I am already in, so great!

[Broncojohnny]

If you want to see full retard action in a real company, check out FIZZ.

[1carcrazyguy]

I am glad I sold my AAPL at 119. It was my largest position by far. Just trying to decide where to jump back in. I set my limit order at 113 but cancelled it because it looked like we might be going to 110. Guess I will watch it and see.....

[slow99]

Damn, the past week and a half has been brutal - markets off nearly 5%. Hoping this is the price reset for the rate adjustment.

[1carcrazyguy]

Sold 2/3rds of my JCP shares for .90 profit per share. Sold my Icpt position at 185. If things go down Friday or Monday I will be look to get into something. Either one of the previously mentioned stocks or maybe V (Visa). Just not sure I wanted to be all in on stocks with the Russia/Turkey issue. Anything could happen tomorrow or over the weekend so I wanted to be in a mostly cash position just in case. So I locked in a little profit and will sit and wait.

Has anyone been keeping up with the KBIO roller coaster? Up to 46, down to 18 and back to 28 today! After watching the Martin interview this evening. I am thinking about buying in on a dip? He sure seems determined to make something with the KBIO. It sounds like he either is going to merge it with his other company or acquire other medicines for KBIO? Anyone else have any thoughts on it?

[1carcrazyguy]

A couple of my other holding are doing good today as well. ICPT is up about 13.50 a share (8.5%) and I bought it at 162. Now it is at 184.20. JCP which I bought at 7.40 is at 8.05.